Sunday MLB Props Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Seth Beer, Gerrit Cole
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks teammates Seth Beer and Daulton Varsho.
- Doug Ziefel uses the Action Labs player Prop tool to break down the top prop plays for Sunday's MLB slate.
- He has found value on three plays, including one on Seth Beer.
- Check out his top picks and analysis below.
Sunday matinee baseball is a tradition like no other, and today, I’ve pinpointed three guys who are primed to boost your bankroll. First, we’ve got two starters, one who is due to bounce back and another who is looking to build off his previous outing. Then we round it out with a rookie who has been red hot lately and may very well continue his success today. So, let’s dive into my three player prop selections for today’s slate and finish the week on a high note.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Gerrit Cole Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
|Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees||Yankees -200|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
It’s safe to say that Gerrit Cole has not gotten off the best start in 2022; however, facing this Cleveland lineup may be just what he needs to get back on track.
Cole has dominated the current Guardians lineup throughout his career. In 72 plate appearances, the Guardians are hitting just .159 with a 36.1 Strikeout Rate and a 31.3 Whiff Rate.
While Gerrit Cole’s peripheral stats may be poor, there are plenty of indications that his stuff is still elite. He is still in the top 11 percent of the league in Whiff Rate, and his expected batting average is only .256. His fastball and slider are above-average pitches in both the movement and velocity departments, his command of them is what has failed him in the early going.
In the end, Cole’s stuff is no worse than in years past, and he’s due for some positive regression that we should see here against Cleveland.
Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts -145
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Luis Garcia Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
|Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros||Astros -125|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
We have seen two very different versions of Luis Garcia in both of his starts thus far. In his season debut against Arizona, he did not have his best stuff and was very fortunate to escape the outing without surrendering any runs as his average Exit Velocity was high, and his expected FIP was 6.68
Although, against the Angels, it was a much different story. He did allow three runs but had much better command and executed well as he racked up seven punchouts over five innings of work.
Here he should build off of that strong outing against a Blue Jays lineup that has had quite a hard time hitting Garcia in the past. Admittedly, it might not be the biggest of sample sizes. Still, over 19 plate appearances against the Blue Jays lineup, Garcia has recorded seven strikeouts, has an average Exit Velocity of 77 mph, and most importantly, a 43.3 Whiff Percentage.
If Garcia has his good stuff today, he should go well over the current number.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts -115
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Seth Beer Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+115)
|New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks||Mets -175|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
The Diamondbacks lineup has not given us much to talk about as they have struggled mightily as a whole. However, the one bright spot has been rookie Seth Beer.
Beer has been making tons of solid contact, which shows in his numbers. He is hitting .375, has an average Exit Velocity in the top 10 percent of the league, and has a wOBA in the top seven percent of the league.
In this matchup, he’ll be facing right-hander Tylor Megill. While Beer has done nothing but hit in his young career, he’s shown to be slightly better against righties. In 36 career plate appearances, Beer is hitting .400 with a 1.133 OPS.
Megill is drastically worse against lefties, which Beer is, and has given up a great deal of hard contact as he sits in the bottom 13 percent of the league in average Exit Velocity.
Bank on the Beer to keep his hot streak going.
Pick: Over 0.5 Total Bases -155
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