MLB PrizePicks Plays: 5 Prop Picks, Including Trea Turner & Tony Gonsolin
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Trea Turner
- With a full slate of MLB action on Tuesday, our props analyst has found five PrizePicks plays worth tailing.
- He's backing three Diamondbacks against the Royals and two Dodgers against the Brewers.
- Check out Tony Sartori's picks and analysis below.
Tuesday's MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, August 23
Zach Davies Under 5 Hits Allowed
Tuesday features the first matchup of a two-game interleague series with the AL Central's Kansas City Royals hosting the NL West's ArizonaDiamondbacks. Right-hander Zach Davies will take the mound for Arizona, and he's a strong candidate to back in this contest.
Davies enters this game in good form. Over his last three starts, he boasts a 2.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
We should expect this strong stretch of pitching to continue against the Royals. Since July 1, Kansas City ranks just 22nd in SLG, 20th in OPS, and 20th in wOBA.
The trends are also on our side with this play. Davies has allowed five or fewer hits in each of his last six starts and in two of his three career outings against the Royals.
Over its last 10 games, Kansas City is averaging just 6.1 hits per game, and that takes into account hits accumulated against bullpens.
Christian Walker Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7
We are also backing a few Arizona hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Jonathan Heasley. It has been a tough season for the young right-hander, and this is a trend I expect to continue in this matchup.
Through 13 starts, Heasley is 1-7 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. We should not expect any positive regression from Heasley as he possesses a .375 xwOBA, .283 xBA, and .493 xSLG.
Christian Walker is the first hitter we are backing against him. Entering this game in great form, Walker is hitting .345 with three home runs over his last eight games.
This positive regression was predictable for Walker as his metrics have been better than his surface-level stats all season, boasting a .371 xwOBA, .253 xBA, and .508 xSLG. Going against a poor pitcher in Heasley, this strong stretch of hitting should continue.
Josh Rojas Over 1.5 Hits + Walks
The other Arizona hitter we are backing is infielder Josh Rojas. Rojas has had a strong year, producing a .286 BA, .416 SLG, and .775 OPS.
He has been particularly sharp at the dish recently, going over this total in six of his last nine games (67%). We should expect this trend to continue against the struggling Heasley.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Rojas' splits jump by about two percent (.290/.427/.779). Projected to bat in his usual leadoff role, Rojas may get an extra at-bat to get us over this total late in the game.
Tony Gonsolin Under 5 Hits Allowed
Through 22 starts this season, Gonsolin is 15-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. But somehow, Gonsolin has been even sharper recently.
Over his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. One of those starts came against Milwaukee, a game in which he dominated them by throwing seven shutout innings while only allowing two hits.
Hits have been hard to come by against Gonsolin all season. Over his 22 starts, Gonsolin has allowed five or fewer hits 19 times (86%). We should expect this strong trend to continue against a Brewers club that usually struggles with contact.
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We are also backing Dodgers star Trea Turner to have a productive night. This is a rare line to see for Turner, and that is because the Dodgers are squaring off against Milwaukee's ace, Corbin Burnes.
While there is no reason to fade the Cy Young candidate specifically, we have to take advantage of this opportunity to back Turner to record just one run or RBI, something he has done in 11 of his last 17 games (65%). In his career against Burnes, Turner is 3-4 with a double.
Turner has been a monster this season, producing a .305 BA, .486 SLG, and .832 OPS. Even if Burnes shuts him down in the first half of the game, Milwaukee's bullpen has been awful recently, and he could affect the scoreboard later on.