Tuesday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Value on Joey Votto, Carlos Correa, Tommy Pham & More (May 3)
Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Votto.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, May 3
Joey Votto Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4.5
We have the first matchup of this NL Central series, as the Cincinnati Reds travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers. I will be fading a few Reds hitters in this matchup as they’re slated to go against right-handed pitcher Brandon Woodruff.
While Woodruff is just 2-1 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through four starts this season, his metrics suggest positive regression is imminent. Woodruff boasts a .311 xwOBA, .221 xBA and .349 xSLG.
This positive regression should come against Joey Votto and the Reds, both of which have been awful this season. Entering this game, Votto possesses a mere .278 xwOBA, .169 xBA and .272 xSLG.
Tommy Pham Hitter Fantasy Score Under 4
The other Cincinnati hitter I’m fading in this game is Tommy Pham. Against right-handed pitchers this season, Pham possesses a mere .217 BA, .294 OBP, .413 SLG and .707 OPS.
Through six career plate appearances against Woodruff, Pham is 0-6 with two strikeouts.
Pham has gone under this total in four of his last six games, and I think he does so yet again against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
Willy Adames Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
The last play I’m making in this game is for Milwaukee’s shortstop to go over his fantasy score total. Adames has been playing some great ball recently and has gone over this total in four of his last seven games.
Going against right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle should be a great opportunity to keep it going, as Mahle is just 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.657 WHIP.
In his career against Mahle, Adames is 3-6 with a double and a home run.
Carlos Correa Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
We have the second matchup of a four-game set between the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles today, and I will be fading a couple of Twins hitters slated to go against left-hander Bruce Zimmermann.
Zimmermann has gotten off to an outstanding start this season, boasting a 0.93 ERA and 1.190 WHIP through 19.1 innings pitched.
Correa should be a good fade candidate in this matchup, as his metrics have been underwhelming to start the season. Thus far, Correa possesses a .323 xwOBA, .261 xBA and .417 xSLG.
Jorge Polanco Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6
The other Minnesota hitter I’m fading in this game is second baseman Jorge Polanco. Like Correa, Polanco’s metrics are nothing special, as he possesses a .327 xwOBA, .248 xBA and .399 xSLG.
Polanco has particularly struggled against left-handed pitchers, holding a .189 BA, .250 OBP, .297 SLG and .547 OPS this season.
While this is a tremendously small sample size, Polanco is 0-2 with one walk against Zimmermann in his career.
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