MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Max Scherzer, Matt Olson, Logan Webb (July 22)
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer (Mets)
We're back with three more of the top MLB player props for Saturday's slate.
Tonight, I'm honing in on three road warriors, as each player is in a great spot to go over their respective prop totals.
So, let's dive right in and see who we're backing tonight.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, July 22
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts -120
|Giants vs. Nationals|
|First Pitch||7:05 pm ET|
Logan Webb has had a fantastic season, as he's cemented himself as a bulldog-type ace in San Francisco. He comes into this start with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 20 starts.
However, his uptick in strikeouts this season is what's made him one of the premier starting pitchers in the NL. Webb's strikeout rate is up nearly five percent from last season, and that ability to rack up punch-outs is being undervalued in his matchup tonight.
Webb will be up against the Nationals. To the Nationals' credit, they hold the second-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors — although, the matchup has driven Webb's strikeout total far too low.
Webb has eclipsed this total in 17 of his 20 starts this season, which feeds into a longer trend, as he's gone over the total in 75% of his last 52 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -300 that he'll go over again tonight despite the tough matchup.
Pick: Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts -145
|Mets vs. Red Sox|
|First Pitch||7:10 pm ET|
After battling injuries for the first few months of the season, it appears that Max Scherzer has found his stride, and the strikeouts have begun to rack up. He's eclipsed this total in nine of his last 10 starts and is in line to continue that trend at Fenway Park tonight.
Scherzer will face a Red Sox lineup that ranks 23rd in team strikeout rate, but has plenty of holes in it. They strike out a bit below league average as a team, but they also have six hitters with strikeout rates above 25%.
Mad Max is trending in the right direction and must pitch well for the Mets to get back on track. The games leading up to the trade deadline are crucial for determining whether the Mets sell.
Expect Max to give his all in this matchup, work deep and rack up the strikeouts. Our Action Labs projections have Scherzer's over as the top strikeout prop on the slate. They have him projected for 7.4 strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -115
|Braves vs. Brewers|
|First Pitch||7:15 pm ET|
The signing of Matt Olson came immediately after the trade of Freddie Freeman, and this season shows why the Braves were comfortable making Olson their first baseman of the future.
He's been crushing the ball, as his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity rank in the top two percent of the league. Nearly a third of his hits have gone over the wall.
Tonight, he's in another spot to mash, as he'll have his first few at-bats come against the Brewers' Adrian Houser. Houser is your prototypical sinker-slider guy who thrives off generating ground balls. However, Houser's ground-ball rate is nearly six percent below league average, and his fly-ball rate is eight percent above league average.
We know Olson will be able to make contact, and if he gets one in the air, it may very well not stay in the yard. Back Olson to pick up some extra bases tonight and perhaps tally homer number 33.