Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction: Odds & Moneyline Pick (5/10)

Both the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox were last-place teams in 2023, but each squad has been competitive through the first five weeks of the MLB season.

Washington surprisnigly owns a better record (18-18) than the Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals. Now, the Nationals face their fourth consecutive American League squad on Friday night at Fenway Park.

The latest Nationals vs Red Sox odds have the Red Sox as heavy -225 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 (+100o /-120u).

For my Nationals vs Red Sox prediction, I'm backing the Washington moneyline, which may surprise some given it is starting Patrick Corbin against Boston standout Tanner Houck. Find out why in my MLB betting preview below.

The Nationals may not be able to keep up the pace to finish the season around the .500 mark, but Washington has given many teams fits so far.

Washington won two of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays. Then, it followed up that performance by picking a two-game split with the Baltimore Orioles at home.

Interestingly enough, the Nationals have been more successful away from D.C. The team boasts an 11-8 road record, including series wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

Patrick Corbin makes his eighth start on Friday and is still seeking his first win of the season. Corbin is 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA, but the Nationals rallied back from early multi-run deficits to beat the Marlins and Dodgers in his past two outings.

Corbin gave up seven runs in four innings against Miami, and Washington fell behind 0-7 before rallying to win 12-9. Then against Toronto, Corbin allowed three runs in the second inning — but he still tossed six innings, and the Nats scored eight late runs in a 9-3 triumph.

Since getting swept by the Dodgers at home in late April, the Nationals are 4-0 off a loss — and Washington lost in 12 innings against Baltimore on Wednesday night.

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The Red Sox still own a winning record (19-18), despite losing five of their past six games. Boston dropped a pair of games in Atlanta; moreover, opponents have held Boston to two runs or fewer in each of its past five defeats.

Third baseman Rafael Devers has picked up a hit in 12 of his last 13 games, but he has driven in only six runs during that stretch.

Tanner Houck heads to the mound for the Sox in the series opener. He owns the best ERA (1.99) among Boston's starting rotation.

However, Houck's record does not reflect his sterling ERA: Boston is 3-3 in Houck's seven starts. That notwithstanding, Houck has pitched six or more innings five times — including a complete-game shutout of the Cleveland Guardians on April 17.

Starting pitchers facing the Nationals have cashed the Over on their respective strikeout props in six consecutive games. Houck has tallied nine strikeouts in two home games this season.

The Red Sox finally won their first home series opener last time out against the Giants, but the Sox were outscored in their first four Game 1 losses at Fenway by a cumulative score of 27-2.

Boston's offense has struggled lately — and this against the likes of Minnesota and Atlanta during the last two series.

It is difficult to ignore Boston's moribund performances in home Game 1's, notwithstanding Boston's blowout of San Francisco in its last opportunity — which also came as an underdog.

Now, the Red Sox are heavy favorites against a Nationals team that has demonstrated its ability to bounce back nicely off losses recently. Corbin should get off to a better start tonight after falling behind early in his last two outings.

Pick: Nationals +180 · Play to +170