The Cincinnati Reds (71-71) host the New York Mets (76-66) on September 7, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on WPIX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Mets vs Reds Prediction
- Mets vs Reds pick: Under 8.5
My Mets vs Reds best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Reds Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Mets vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Sproat (NYM – Season debut) | Stat | RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| — | W-L | 5-4 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 2.70/2.99 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 3.27/3.39 |
| — | WHIP | 0.97 |
| — | K-BB% | 25.5% |
| — | GB% | 28.0% |
| — | Stuff+ | 124 |
| — | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cincinnati enters as a -125 favorite on the moneyline, while New York sits at +105 to notch the upset. Oddsmakers have set the total at 8.5 runs. The series has been balanced so far: the Mets took Game 1 with a 5-4 win, and the Reds answered back Saturday with a 6-3 victory.
On the mound, the Mets hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, their No. 5 prospect, who will make his long-anticipated MLB debut. The Reds counter with Hunter Greene, who is coming off an excellent outing against the American League’s top team, limiting them to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings.
The recommended play here is Under 8.5, which matches the criteria for Evan Abrams’ Silent Sharp Unders system. This angle focuses on regular-season games between quality teams where the market quietly pushes the total down despite recent offensive production.
With both lineups showing life in the first two games, casual bettors may expect fireworks again—but the sharper signal suggests otherwise.
Between Greene’s ability to miss bats and Sproat’s potential to surprise in his debut, coupled with stable early-September conditions in Cincinnati, the setup favors a lower-scoring contest.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Mets vs Reds Betting Trends
