The Kansas City Royals (46-50) and New York Mets (55-41) will meet in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSKC.
New York is a -125 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Kansas City is +105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Royals predictions for Sunday, July 13, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Royals Prediction
- Mets vs Royals pick: Clay Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
My Mets vs Royals best bet is on Clay Holmes under 3.5 strikeouts, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Royals Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Mets vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) | Stat | LHP Noah Cameron (KCR) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.29/ 4.20 | ERA /xERA | 2.56/3.36 |
| 4.27/ 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89/ 4.12 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 12.1% |
| 53.9% | GB% | 43.2% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Mets vs Royals Preview, Picks
The Mets are looking to limit Clay Holmes' workload in his first full MLB season as a starter.
Heading into this season, his career-high in innings was 70 back in 2021. Holmes is already at 98.1 IP across 18 starts in 2025. With the All-Star break looming, it's a good time to manage his usage.
The mounting innings seem to be weighing on Holmes right now. He has a brutal 16:17 strikeout to walk ratio over his past five starts.
His strikeout rate has dipped to 14.5% over his last 25 innings.
Holmes' .233 BABIP has helped him limit the damage (4.32 ERA), though Baltimore got to him for a season-high five ERs in his last outing.
Sean Manaea has missed the entire season with an oblique injury. He should be fairly stretched out after throwing 73 pitches in his final rehab appearance.
It's hard to say exactly how the Mets will divide the innings, but it could be an even split.
Manaea is stepping into a regular rotation spot after the break, so he'll be treated like a normal starter soon enough. He should be equipped to cover 3-4 innings.
The Royals have the 2nd-lowest K% vs. RHP this season and the 4th-lowest mark over the past 30 days.
The lineup they rolled out on Saturday against righty Frankie Montas had combined for just a 17.6% K% vs. RHP on the season.
Mets vs Royals Best Bet
- Clay Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
