The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on June 18, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Phillies are -122 on the moneyline. The Mets are +104 on the moneyline. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies Pick: Mets ML (+113)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is on New York. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +104 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -122 |
- Mets vs Phillies moneyline: Mets +104, Phillies -122
- Mets vs Phillies over/under: 9.5 (-105 / -115)
- Mets vs Phillies spread: Mets -1.5 (+162), Phillies +1.5 (-196)
Mets vs Phillies Kalshi MLB Odds
Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) | Stat | Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.78 /4.14 | ERA / xERA | 5.86 / 4.41 |
| 3.89 / 4.03 | FIP / xFIP | 4.50 / 3.83 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 15.2% |
| 35.7% | GB% | 42.5% |
| .316 | BABIP | .333 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets are coming off a dominant 9-1 game on Wednesday. Nolan McLean pitched a seven-inning gem, while the offense jumped on Nick Lodolo early. This game was a proper palate cleanser after losing the first two games of the series, with Game 1 ending in a 12-0 loss.
Still, this Mets season is a disaster relative to expectations. They were World Series hopefuls after an offseason that included additions like Luis Robert Jr, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Luke Weaver, and Freddy Peralta. Unfortunately, injuries and underperformance have prevented their additions from making a significant impact.
On the bright side, Devin Williams and Bo Bichette are due for positive regression.
While this regression alone is not flipping the Mets into contenders, there is hope for the future with 2026 call-ups Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing. Both are league-average producers this season, but the batted ball data is solid between them.
The crown jewel of the Mets' young core is NL Rookie of the Year candidate McLean. He is ascending into an SP1 and could find himself in the conversation among baseball's best starters in the coming years.
2026 is not the Mets' year, but maybe 2027 can be kinder. At least the Knicks' championship can soften this blow.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies' 40-34 record is far better than the Mets' 33-41 record, yet the Phillies have a worse run differential. This differential is just one run and a fantastic example of baseball's chaos and variance.
Philadelphia has just three hitters with at least a 90 wRC+ in their regular lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh all have a wRC+ of at least 130 in 2026. This is fantastic for each of them, but it does little good for the other six hitters.
Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto's contracts have quickly become albatross deals. They have combined for 0.9 fWAR this season, despite earning $42 million combined. Philadelphia is on the hook for Turner until 2033, and Realmuto until 2028.
The Phillies are not a worse team than the Mets, despite the slightly worse differential, but they are vulnerable, especially when neither Cristopher Sanchez nor Zack Wheeler is on the mound.
Today's starter, Aaron Nola, would typically be considered one of the better Phillies' pitchers, but not this year.
Mets vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Nola's season has been a roller coaster. He has four starts with at least five runs allowed and four starts with no more than two runs allowed. He had three straight starts from May 20 to June 2 without a walk allowed, then allowed six combined walks between his past two starts.
What is killing Nola is his walk rate against left-handed hitters (13.1%). He has an impeccable 1.4% against RHH, but that will do him little good against a Mets' offense with six LHH in the projected lineup.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea takes the mound against a Phillies offense ranking sixth-worst against LHP. The Phillies just lost one of their best hitters against LHP in Adolis Garcia and are projected to start four LHH against Manaea. Manaea has a dominant split against left-handed hitters this season, with a 28.2% K-BB and 2.18 xFIP.
While Manaea has struggled on the road, he has been an improved SP in the past month. He has a 3.16 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and 3.59 xFIP in 25 2/3 IP since May 17. This point of demarcation may be arbitrary, but it is when he returned to pitching as a long-man/starter.
Neither the Mets nor the Phillies are hitting well this season, yet the Phillies are vulnerable beyond Nola. Their bullpen will likely be without multiple relievers today.
Chase Shugart, Tim Mayze, and Tanner Banks have all pitched in four of the past six days for Philadelphia. With Andrew Painter's outing cut short yesterday, they were all called upon for assistance.
Lower-leverage relievers are not often impactful, but their absence leaves Jose Alvarado as Philadelphia's only left-handed reliever. The Mets could stack lefties back-to-back without worrying about a reliever's eventual advantage.
Also, Philadelphia is without its second-best reliever, Brad Keller. If Aaron Nola gets knocked out early, this game could get ugly for the Phillies.
Pick: Mets ML (+113)
