The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees on September 2, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Astros Prediction
- Yankees vs Astros picks: Under 7.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
My Yankees vs Astros best bet is Under 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Astros Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Tony Sartori’s Yankees vs Astros Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The AL Cy Young Award is likely out of reach for Max Fried, but that doesn't take away from his spectacular season. Through 27 appearances, Fried is 14-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive as Fried ranks in the top half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Fried is a bullpen expected to close the year strong. This season, New York’s relief corps ranks third in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
There’s no denying the Yankees’ firepower at the plate, but they could run into trouble against Houston’s Framber Valdez.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
New York's offense relies heavily on the long ball, and while that approach is often effective, Valdez’s elite ability to induce ground balls should mitigate that strength.
Valdez ranks in the 98th percentile in ground-ball rate, making him one of the league’s most effective pitchers at keeping the ball out of the air, thus limiting home runs. The southpaw has allowed just four home runs over his past 18 starts.
Over that stretch, he is 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
Like Fried, Valdez’s analytics suggest his success will continue. This season, Valdez ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
If Valdez limits the damage early, the bullpen behind him should be able to close the deal. Houston’s relief corps ranks in the top 10 in ERA, xFIP and WAR.
Meanwhile, the Astros’ offense has been inconsistent, which is likely to be problematic against a pitcher of Fried’s caliber. Houston ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage and home runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
