The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles on August 18, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
- Orioles vs Red Sox pick: Under 8.5
My Orioles vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -103o / -119u | +102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -204 | 8.5 -103o / -119u | -124 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Dustin May (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 7-8 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 1.43 / 3.05 | ERA /xERA | 4.67 / 4.71 |
| 2.45 / 3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48 / 4.27 |
| 0.81 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 12.9% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 43.4% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
The Betting Insider’s Orioles vs Red Sox Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Ace Form Leading the Charge
Trevor Rogers has been in complete command for Baltimore all season long, entering this start with a 1.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP through his first 11 starts. Those numbers place him firmly among the American League’s most effective starters, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.
Rogers enters Fenway riding a seven-game quality start streak, a stretch where he’s posted a microscopic 1.14 ERA and 0.78 WHIP across 47.1 innings. That’s a stark contrast to his early-season form, where a 4.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP had raised concerns. But Rogers appears to have turned the page post-rehab and rotation reintegration, now establishing himself as the Orioles' clear top-of-the-rotation anchor.
What stands out most about Rogers’ recent run is just how difficult he has been to square up. Opponents are hitting in the high .160s against him during this streak, with very little hard contact and almost no damage in run-producing spots.
Baltimore may have sold off pieces at the deadline, but Rogers has given them a rock-solid presence every fifth day, and he arrives in Boston looking like one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: May Reinvents His Arsenal
Opposite Rogers stands Dustin May, who has wasted no time reinventing himself on the mound since being acquired at the trade deadline. He leaned heavily on his cutter in his Red Sox debut, throwing it nearly 30% of the time compared to just 7% usage back in Los Angeles.
May himself called it a “weapon pitch,” and Boston’s coaching staff clearly agrees, pushing him to elevate it from a secondary look into a core part of his arsenal. The results spoke volumes in his second outing, where he dialed the cutter back to around 20%, mixed it effectively, and turned in a dominant performance: six scoreless innings and his first win in a Red Sox uniform.
While his season ERA still sits at 4.67, the immediate impact of the cutter adjustment suggests a pitcher trending in the right direction.
Tonight, he’ll get an excellent opportunity to keep that momentum rolling. The Orioles have been in a free fall since the trade deadline, when they sold off several key pieces, and their bats have gone ice cold. Since August 1st, Baltimore ranks dead last in batting average, OPS, and wRC+.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
A few highly profitable and very consistent Insider systems have been triggered for tonight’s matchup. One of which has a record of 44-18-6 this season, good for a 33% ROI. Check them out below!
System) In-Conference mid-to-late season, RLM (60% win rate, 16% ROI)
Game is in-conference
Game #50 or later
The under is receiving no more than 25% of public bets
The Over/Under change from open to close is between -0.5 and -1.5
Wind direction is not “out”
By midseason, conference teams know each other inside and out, leading to slower, more defensive games. The public still chases overs, but sharp money drives the line lower, signaling true value on the under. Without wind carrying balls out, offense is naturally capped, making these spots a strong contrarian angle.
System) Cold Weather with reverse line movement (61% win rate, 18% ROI)
Average temperature is below 65 degrees
The under is receiving less than 33% of public bets
The Over/Under change from open to close is between -0.5 and -1.5
Since 2020
Cold weather suppresses offense—pitchers get extra help from heavy air, while hitters lose distance and exit velocity. The public rarely accounts for this and piles onto the over, but sharps attack the under and push the line down. Backing the under in these conditions consistently puts you on the right side of physics and market movement. This system is on an incredible run, with a record of 44-18-6 this season, securing what should be the 7th straight season of profit.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline
No bet
Run Line (Spread)
No bet
Over/Under
As mentioned, we are taking Under 8.5.
