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Padres vs. Braves Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Total in Finale of High-Scoring Series (Sunday, May 15)

Padres vs. Braves Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Total in Finale of High-Scoring Series (Sunday, May 15) article feature image
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Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson.

  • The Padres and Braves will wrap up their series with a Sunday matinee.
  • The first two games have both gone over the total, but will the finale be more of the same?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down this matchup and shares a best bet below.

Padres vs. Braves Odds

Padres Odds -105
Braves Odds -115
Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115)
Time 11:35 a.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final matchup of this three-game set as the National League East’s Atlanta Braves host the NL West’s San Diego Padres. The total has gone over 8.5 in each of the first two games in this series.

Will we see another high-scoring affair, or can the pitching slow down the scoring?

San Diego Padres: Is Another Slugfest Coming?

The San Diego Padres enter this contest amidst a flurry of high-scoring games as there have been nine or more total runs scored in 12 of their past 18 outings. With right-hander Joe Musgrove set to take the mound for San Diego, I think this trend of high-scoring games will continue.

Over seven career starts against the Braves, Musgrove possesses a 4.50 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP. The total runs scored have gone over 8.5 in five of those seven starts.

Following Musgrove is a very poor bullpen which could help push this game over the total. San Diego’s relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA and 27th in FIP.

Meanwhile, this pitching staff should get good run support as the Padres are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Wright. Through 31 career plate appearances against Wright, the Padres roster boasts a .323 BA, .613 SLG and .392 wOBA.

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Atlanta Braves: All Signs Point to the Over

The Atlanta Braves also enter this matchup amidst a streak of high-scoring games as there have been nine or more total runs scored in seven of their past 10 contests. As I mentioned above, right-hander Joe Musgrove is slated to take the mound for the Padres.

Through 87 career plate appearances against Musgrove, the Braves roster boasts a .299 BA, .545 SLG and .391 wOBA. When facing right-handers this season, Atlanta ranks 12th in the league in wOBA, eighth in SLG and 11th in OPS.

Like San Diego, the Braves’ relief staff has struggled this season. Atlanta’s relief pitching ranks just 18th in the league in ERA.

Overs have been a hot bet for Atlanta when they play at home this season as they are 12-6-2 to the over when playing at Truist Park. I expect these strong lineups to continue the trend.

Padres-Braves Pick

I believe we are getting great value on the over in this game as the two listed starting pitchers have good surface-level numbers this season. That being said, they have both struggled in their careers when facing the opposing lineup.

Weather should not be a factor in this contest. There is supposed to be no rain and light (3-5 mph) winds. If this total jumps to nine before first pitch, I would pass.

Pick: Padres/Braves o8.5 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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