Padres vs. Cubs MLB Odds, Picks & Preview: Why San Diego Will Stay Hot (Thursday, June 16)
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado
- The Cubs host the Padres in a Thursday matinee.
- San Diego has won the first three games of this series and is playing well over the past two weeks while the Cubs have lost nine straight.
- Jules Posner dissects the matchup and shares a best bet below.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds
|Time||2:20 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Chicago Cubs have not been having a particularly fun time hosting the San Diego Padres. Chicago has been outscored 35-11 so far and it seems like the Cubs’ pitching staff is singlehandedly elevating the Padres offense from an average unit to a slightly above average unit.
Additionally, the Cubs are 1-9 over their past 10 games, while the Padres continue to play solid baseball and have a 7-3 mark over their past 10.
Joe Musgrove takes the hill in the final game of this four-game series and Matt Swarmer will look to be the stopper for the Cubs in the Thursday afternoon showdown.
San Diego Padres: Musgrove is Making a Cy Young Case
The San Diego Padres have been playing great baseball this season and they’re only getting healthier. They have quietly been nipping at the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ heels in the NL West and they still don’t even have their best player back in Fernando Tatis Jr.
Joe Musgrove is having a great year and frankly, his only weakness this season is that he has no weaknesses. His home/road splits are pretty much even across the board and he has been as consistent of a starter as there is in the league. He is making his case to win the NL Cy Young.
The Padres’ offense has seen in uptick in production on the road against right-handed pitchers as they’ve moved their team wRC+ to 102 over the past three weeks, which is actually relatively high considering their struggles this season.
Chicago Cubs: Pitching Staff Continues to Struggle
Surprisingly the Cubs’ offense has not been the issue recently — especially at home. They’ve been a top 10 home offense in terms of team wRC+ over the past three weeks, but the pitching has been pretty bad.
Matt Swarmer looks to change that, but his peripherals do not look as good as his shiny 1.50 home ERA. His home FIP is 5.30, however his home xFIP is only 3.75. It’s a small sample and it’s hard to know who Swarmer is at this point.
Another issue for the Cubs has been their bullpen as the relievers have really struggled over the past few weeks. Overall, the Cubs’ pen has been a solid unit, but they have slipped lately and have given up a fair amount of runs.
It’s really hard to fade the Padres the way they’ve been playing — especially when they have one of the best pitchers in the game going. The Cubs are not in great shape and they are essentially experiencing MLB Darwinism at this point.
The wind will be blowing out and it will be warm in the Windy City, but Joe Musgrove’s ability to keep offenses grounded is why the best value in this game is the Padres runline. If it stays at -1.5 and in the -110 or even -120 range, that should be the play.
Pick: Padres RL
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