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Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Los Angeles’ Bats to Tee Off at Home (Saturday, July 2)

Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Los Angeles’ Bats to Tee Off at Home (Saturday, July 2) article feature image

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured from left: Trea Turner #6 and Freddie Freeman #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • The Dodgers are home favorites on Saturday against the Padres.
  • The Padres have Yu Darvish on the mound while the Dodgers will counter with Tyler Anderson.
  • Check out Kenny Ducey's pick and analysis below.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds

Padres Odds+130
Dodgers Odds-150
Over/Under8 (-105 / -115)
Time7:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Padres and Dodgers will continue their thrilling series on Saturday when they meet again in Los Angeles.

It hasn’t been pretty for the Padres in the first two games of this series despite throwing some of their best arms, but will the third game be any different? Let’s take a look.

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Darvish and the Padres’ Power Bats Struggling

It’s been a brutal run for the Padres in the last couple of weeks as they rank 24th in wRC+ in that span while posting just a .135 ISO. Their power bats have been relatively quiet as they await the return of Fernando Tatis Jr., ranking just 18th in Barrel Rate over this period of time and 28th in Hard-Hit Rate.

Against lefties, it’s been a similar story. While the Padres are okay in this split with a 106 wRC+, that is just barely above average. They have a solid 9.5% Walk Rate and 20.1% Strikeout Rate, but again it’s the power department which has been lacking.

Yu Darvish should also scare you if you’re a Padres fan. He’s posted a 3.67 xERA through 14 starts and continues to get rocked with a 38.2% Hard-Hit Rate, the worst of his career, and a .370 xwOBA on contact. His Strikeout Rate has taken a massive hit, falling from 29.2% all the way to 21.3% this season. For reference, Darvish’s career average is 28.8%. He’s simply not the same.

Anderson and the Dodgers Have the Upper Hand

Tyler Anderson is the perfect foil to Darvish, considering he’s just hitting his stride at the age of 32. The lefty owns a 3.23 ERA through 78 innings this season and quickly graduated from the role of primary pitcher behind an opener to developing into one of the best starters on the Dodgers’ staff.

Anderson’s minimal 4.2% Walk Rate coupled with excellent batted ball numbers make him one of the toughest cookies to crack in the game today. He’s leaned heavily on his cutter this season, which has made life a nightmare for right-handed hitters. Yes — righties are .231 against Anderson, and lefties are .238. This is important to remember when you’re looking at a Padres team which possesses most of its power from the right side.

The Dodgers’ offense continues to chug along too. They’re third in Hard-Hit Rate and top-six in Barrel Rate over the past two weeks. That’s helped them to the fourth-best wRC+ in baseball, though it should be noted they’ve had issues striking out at a ridiculous 26.9% rate in the last two weeks.

Padres-Dodgers Pick

We covered how few batters Darvish is striking out, so I’m not too concerned with the Dodgers’ ability to hit him here. They’ve done an excellent job at the plate, particularly in making loud contact, and the aging righty has allowed lots of that this season.

On the other hand, I really love this matchup for Anderson against the Padres. Not only is San Diego middling against lefties and in the midst of a slump, but the Padres also have no clear path to baserunners against a guy who is actually tougher on righties than he is lefties.

I’m going to lay the juice here with the Dodgers, who should clinch the series win on Saturday.

Pick: Dodgers ML (-150)

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