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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Padres vs. Rockies Betting Preview (Thursday, July 14)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Padres vs. Rockies Betting Preview (Thursday, July 14) article feature image
Credit:

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell

  • The Rockies host the Padres in the finale of a four-game set.
  • Coors Field is known for high-scoring games, but our analyst is targeting the under in this matchup.
  • Tony Sartori explains why and provides his best bet below.

Padres vs. Rockies Odds

Padres Odds -134
Rockies Odds +114
Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110)
Time 3:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final game of this NL West intradivisional series in which the Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres. Two of the first three games of this series went under the total.

Will we get another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or will the bats awaken this time around?

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San Diego Padres: Snell Starting to Turn it Around

The San Diego Padres have seen a flurry of low-scoring games recently as there have been 11 or fewer runs scored in 12 of their past 14 games (86%). I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Blake Snell is slated to take the mound for San Diego.

Through nine starts this season, Snell is 1-5 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. While those stats are obviously not very good, Snell’s metrics suggest positive regression is looming.

This season, Snell boasts a .306 xwOBA, .221 xBA and a .378 xSLG. This positive regression has already started to rear its head over his past two starts against the Giants and Dodgers.

Over those two starts, Snell allowed just two earned runs on seven hits through 11 innings. There have now been 11 or fewer runs scored in eight of Snell’s nine starts this season, including in both games against Colorado.

Following Snell is one of the league’s better bullpens. Since June 1st, the Padres’ relief pitching ranks seventh in the league in ERA, 14th in BA, ninth in SLG and ninth in wOBA.

However, this pitching staff may not get too much run support as the Padres are slated to go against left-hander Kyle Freeland. When facing left-handers, the Padres rank just 19th in the league in BA, 22nd in SLG, 21st in OPS and 21st in wOBA since the beginning of June.

Through 137 career plate appearances against Freeland, this current Padres roster possesses a .258 BA, .419 SLG, and .326 wOBA.

Colorado Rockies: Freeland Matches up Well with Padres

Like San Diego, the Colorado Rockies have been involved in low-scoring games recently as there have been 11 or fewer runs scored in 10 of their past 11 games (91%). As I mentioned above, left-hander Kyle Freeland is slated to take the mound for Colorado.

Through 17 starts this season, Freeland is 4-7 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. While those numbers are not great, he has been slightly better when facing the Padres.

In his two starts against San Diego, Freeland is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. There have been 11 or fewer runs scored in nine of Freeland’s past 10 starts.

However, Freeland may not get much run support as the Rockies are slated to go against left-hander Blake Snell. Through 135 career plate appearances against Snell, this current Rockies roster possesses a mere .246 BA, .356 SLG, and .301 wOBA.

Padres-Rockies Pick

While the Coors Field factor is certainly baked into this total, I believe it is an over-adjustment. Neither of these teams see 11 total runs often enough to justify this line, even in the altitude.

I believe we are also getting some good value because of Blake Snell’s surface level numbers, but he is coming off of two starts where he shut down two good offenses in San Francisco and Los Angeles. Snell’s metrics also indicate more positive regression is likely.

While the air density will play its usual factor, we will not have to worry about the wind as the forecast calls for a 4-5 mph breeze blowing inward from centerfield. Even if this line closes at 11, I would still take the under at that number.

Pick: Padres/Rockies u11.5 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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