World Series Game 2 Picks, Odds for Phillies vs Astros
Photo Illustration by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber and Alex Bregman
That didn't matter to the Phillies, who came all the way back to force extra innings before ultimately winning, 6-5, on a solo homer by J.T. Realmuto in the top of the 10th inning.
Game 2 sees Houston as a home favorite once again with Framber Valdez taking the mound against Zack Wheeler.
Is there value on the Phillies to take a commanding series lead before the series shifts back to Philadelphia? Our analysts think so. We have four bets total to recommend tonight, including two moneyline picks and two props.
Here are our best bets for Saturday's World Series Game 2 between the Phillies and Astros.
Phillies vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
MLB Odds & Picks
Phillies Moneyline (+125)
Odds via DraftKings
Jules Posner: Zack Wheeler has the opportunity to add to his postseason legacy Saturday night by helping the Phillies gain a 2-0 advantage in the World Series. Wheeler has gritted through a gauntlet of tough offenses en route to the World Series and the Astros may be his biggest challenge yet.
On the other side Framber Valdez twirled a gem against the New YorkYankees in the ALCS, but the Yankees looked relatively toothless on offense in that series up until Game 4. Not to say Valdez is bad or had an easy path to the WS, but the Phillies have not only been solid offensively this postseason, they've also been tough.
In the regular season, the Phillies were solid on the road against LHP. Despite their two biggest home run threats in Kyle Shwarber and Bryce Harper being left-handed bats, they've both shown a knack for taking same-handed pitchers deep this season.
Additionally, Rhys Hoskins has handled LHP well this season and J.T. Realmuto may be looking to seize World Series MVP after his performance on Friday night.
The Astros' offense is as good as ever, but being held scoreless from the third inning on Friday night made them look mortal. Wheeler has done well to neutralize left-handers this season, while Valdez has been relatively hittable at home against right-handed hitters.
This game is enough of a coin flip to take +125 value on their moneyline. As long as they remain underdogs and stay above +110, this should be the play in Game 2.
Phillies F5 (+112)
Odds via FanDuel
Both pitchers have been exceptional in the playoffs, posting sub-2.00 ERAs in at least two appearances. Valdez focuses on keeping the ball on the ground with a A+ curveball, while Wheeler dominates with the fastball and strikes out hitters on the regular.
Wheeler ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and the 83rd percentile of chase rate. This will come in handy because the Astros ranked second in hitter strikeout rate during the regular season, only behind the Cleveland Guardians.
Another edge Wheeler holds over Valdez is his ability to throw strikes. Valdez is slightly below average in walk rate, while Wheeler only walks 5.6% of hitters.
From August 1 to the end of the regular season, the Astros only held a 98 wRC+. Only three batters had a .330+ xwOBA as well, so this has been a tough stretch for the Astros against righties.
Valdez has been great this season by inducing grounders at a 66% clip. His average exit velocity does sit in the 16th percentile and his hard hit rate is in the 18th percentile, so even if he is keeping the ball on the ground, there is a reason his xERA comes in at 3.31 and ERA at 2.82 in the regular season. He still got a little lucky.
The Phillies can hit lefties better than the Astros can hit righties. Wheeler is better than Valdez, even if Valdez can keep the ball on the ground. Expect the Phils to grind out a first five moneyline victory.
They may not win the entire game, but backing Wheeler is the right call. Play this line to -105.
Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Odds via bet365
Doug Ziefel: Last night we saw Aaron Nola attack this Astros lineup with his curveball to generate swings and misses. It is clear that this Phillies staff has a clear game plan to limit fastball usage against this Houston lineup.
Nola wound up with seven called strikes+whiff on his fastball and curveball. However, the difference is that his curveball had a 42 percent whiff rate, while his fastball had an 11 percent whiff rate.
The Astros’ ability to crush fastball does not bode well for Wheeler. He threw his fastball 60 percent of the time this year. While he does try to tunnel his slider with the fastball, the combo did not create a very high whiff rate.
Despite the adjustment that was made by Nola last night, I find it hard to see Wheeler straying from his fastball. Look for the Astros to attack early in the count and rack up the hits tonight.
No Runs – First Inning (-132)
Odds via FanDuel
Shayne Trail: In the regular season, Zack Wheeler was phenomenal to the NRFI, posting a 23-3 NRFI record with an 11-2 road NRFI split. When facing teams’ leadoff hitters he has dominated, only allowing 11 hits in 73 at-bats, paired with 17 strikeouts.
After allowing the Phillies to come back from a 5-0 deficit, the Astros will send out Framber Valdez. In the regular season, Valdez was 25-6 to the NRFI with a proficient 10-4 home at NRFI split.
Like Wheeler, Valdez has also performed well against teams’ leadoff hitters, only allowing 17 hits in 94 at-bats, good for a .181 average.
Valdez’s most important matchups will be against Kyle Schwarber, who is 0-for-7, Nick Castellanos, who is 0-for-4, and Rhys Hoskins, who is 0-for-2
FanDuel has this NRFI priced at -132, which is excellent value. After a long extra innings game Friday night, bet on these two NRFI aces to toss a scoreless first inning in Houston.