Phillies vs Braves MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Max Fried & Atlanta Should Cook at Home (Friday, September 16)

Phillies vs Braves MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Max Fried & Atlanta Should Cook at Home (Friday, September 16) article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried and Travis d’Arnaud.

  • The Braves are strong home favorites this evening against the Phillies.
  • Max Fried takes the mound for Atlanta opposed by Philadelphia's Ranger Suarez
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Phillies Odds+155
Braves Odds-180
Time7:20 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Braves and the Phillies have gone down similar paths this season. They've both spent the majority of the season trailing the Mets in the National League Eastern division race.

The Braves still have a chance to overtake the Mets for the division lead as they're one game behind New York entering play Friday, while the Phillies are nine games out of the division lead.

Both teams still occupy wild-card spots in the National League and every game is crucial as they continue down the stretch.

Who will ultimately get the job done and take home the victory in this one?

Phillies Strong Against Lefties

The Phillies' offense is almost back to full strength, though outfielder Nick Castellanos is still on the injured list.

Philadelphia has quite a bit of power against left-handed pitching. The Phillies have six hitters in their lineup with at least a .187 ISO against left-handed pitching in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Jean Segura.

Max Fried has been stingy in allowing power as he's allowed just a .100 ISO to right-handed batters this year. Fried has a 2.42 ERA at home this year.

Philadelphia is ninth in all of baseball averaging 4.60 runs per game on the road.

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Braves Can Slug At Home

The Braves have one of the best offenses at home in all of baseball. Atlanta is fourth averaging 4.93 runs per game at home entering play Friday.

Ranger Suarez has a 3.63 ERA this year, but a 4.16 xFIP. Suarez's saving grace is his 57% ground ball percentage, which helps limit power.

The Braves have five hitters with at least a .184 ISO against left-handed pitching in Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Matt Olsen, Travis d'Arnaud, and Vaughn Grissom.

Suarez has a 2.76 ERA on the road this season compared to 4.70 at home.

Phillies-Braves Pick

This game is important for both teams at this point in the season, but I have to go with the Braves at home here.

Atlanta would seem to have a slight advantage on paper given that Fried is a better pitcher than Suarez, but also Atlanta has been fantastic at home (47-25 .653 WP) while the Phillies haven't been quite as sharp on the road (61-31 .537 WP).

I took the Braves moneyline at -180 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Braves ML -180

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