Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, June 9.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, June 9
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- Payton Tolle to Record A Win (+170, bet365 | Play to +160)
- Yankees Moneyline (-120, FanDuel | Play to -130)
Red Sox vs Rays Picks
After entering the season as the Red Sox's top-ranked prospect, Payton Tolle has lived up to the hype, pitching to an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 0.97 across 47 1/3 innings. Tolle offers elite extension toward the plate, which heightens the effectiveness of his quality five-pitch mix.
He holds a Stuff+ rating of 114 and has struck out 27.3% of batters while allowing an xBA of .191. He's managed a called-plus-swinging strike rate of 26.9% (CSW%) and been hard-hit 28.7% of the time.
Tolle has completed at least five innings in five of his last six starts and should have a decent opportunity to do so Tuesday versus a Rays lineup that has hit to a wRC+ of 91 against left-handed pitching this season.
Meanwhile, Nick Martinez has started to come down to earth following a surprisingly exceptional start to the season. Over his last five starts, Martinez has pitched to an xFIP of 4.57 and an xERA of 5.41. In those outings, he holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.9% and has been hard-hit 38.4% of the time.
Backing the Red Sox to win the first five innings or to win the game are also solid options, but vet365's price of +170 for Tolle to record a win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Pick: Payton Tolle to Record A Win (+170, bet365 | Play to +160)
Yankees vs Guardians Picks
Gerrit Cole will make his second consecutive start versus the Guardians on Tuesday after Cleveland hit three homers and managed four earned runs off him last Wednesday in the Bronx. While that outing will be a concern for many bettors, Cole has been excellent since returning from the IL, and the fact that he made a few mistakes in this same matchup last week shouldn't scare us off betting into this pitching edge.
Cole has pitched to an xERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 0.89 across his first five starts this season. His average fastball velocity is actually up compared to his last full season, and he's had strong command of his five-pitch mix.
In the game that followed Cole's ugly outing versus the Guardians last week, Slade Cecconi allowed only four hits and one earned run across six innings of work. While Cole's poor showing last week was an outlier relative to the rest of his work this season, Cecconi's performance was among the best of his campaign.
Over his last 10 starts, Cecconi has pitched to an ERA of 4.67, an xFIP of 4.30 and allowed a .275 xBA. He holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 10.7% in that span and a Pitching+ rating of 92.
The loss of Aaron Judge obviously reduces the Yankees' offensive upside significantly, but as we saw in the series opener, their lineup can still be a handful without him. They have hit to a wRC+ of 97 during the early portion of Judge's absence and a wRC+ of 111 versus right-handed pitching this season.
Spencer Jones has looked much more competent since his latest recall, hitting .500 with a 75% hard-hit rate. If he can continue to offer above-average results at the plate, it will greatly reduce the impact of Judge's absence.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-120, FanDuel | Play to -130)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 9
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Payton Tolle to Record A Win (+170, bet365 | Play to +160)
- Yankees Moneyline (-120, FanDuel | Play to -130)
