The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 4, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are -108 on the moneyline and are favored by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Astros Prediction
- Pirates vs Astros Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-108)
My Pirates vs Astros best bet is on Pittsburgh to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Astros Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
- Pirates vs Astros moneyline: Pirates -108, Astros -108
- Pirates vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Astros spread: Pirates -1.5 (+150), Astros +1.5 (-182)
Pirates vs Astros Kalshi MLB Odds
Pirates vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jared Jones (PIT) | Stat | RHP Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 3-3 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 10.38 / 6.38 | ERA / xERA | 2.57 / 3.59 |
| 7.71 / 3.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.09 / 3.83 |
| 19.0 | K-BB% | 14.4 |
| 46.2 | GB% | 43.1 |
| .455 | BABIP | .224 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 108 | Location+ | 96 |
Pirates vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates activated Ryan O'Hearn this week and subsequently lost Konnor Griffin (elbow) to the Injured List. Griffin's bat took a significant step forward in May, as he posted a .306/.361/.459 slash-line and 129 wRC+.
The former top prospect in baseball will be missed, but O'Hearn's return is welcome. His 136 wRC+ this season is one of the Pirates' best. He rejoins an offense with three other batters whose wRC+ is at least 130.
Ironically, hitting has been the Pirates' strong suit this season rather than pitching. Paul Skenes is still one of baseball's best pitchers, but his past four starts have left a lot to be desired. Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller are inconsistent, while today's starter, Jared Jones, just returned to the rotation.
To everyone's surprise, Braxton Ashcraft has the rotation's best ERA (2.77). Ashcraft's season has gone under the radar due to his lack of name value, but this breakout season is very real.
Ashcraft's ERA is backed by a 2.77 xERA, 3.12 xFIP and a 3.11 SIERA. The former long reliever has a case as the "this year's Cristopher Sanchez". This makes up for Chandler's disappointing season.
The former top pitching prospect was expected to join Skenes atop the rotation as a powerful one-two punch, but he is flailing throughout most starts.
This Pirates team is very talented and could contend in the near future, but there are still several holes in the rotation and bullpen.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros sit in limbo with no real direction. They are 28-35 and fourth in the AL West, just ahead of the putrid Los Angeles Angels, but they are only three games back from a Wild Card slot.
The team is plagued with injuries to its lineup and pitching staff. When Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve return in the coming weeks, this offense could rebound into the top five, but the rotation will remain concerning, even upon Hunter Brown's return.
This roster is not built to contend for a World Series, yet the team does not seem to mind the middle. They are trotting out a rotation full of project starters and converted long relievers, yet are not interested in moving Yordan Alvarez to rebuild a farm system with no prospects graded at least 50 (via FanGraphs).
Alvarez's bargain contract does not expire for two more seasons, and he is the best hitter in baseball this season by a significant margin. He is arguably MLB's most valuable potential trade piece, even above Tarik Skubal (whose contract is up this offseason).
Trading a 28-year-old bat in his respective prime would seem nonsensical in most cases, but with Alvarez's concerning injury history and the Astros' desperate need for a reset, it makes sense.
Pirates vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Jared Jones is one of the most talented young starters in baseball, yet he struggled in his first start this season. He allowed five earned runs in 4 and 1/3 IP, with two walks and two home runs allowed.
Fortunately, there was a silver lining. He earned six strikeouts, and his average fastball velocity was up a full mile per hour above his 2024 rate. Jones was not perfect in his rehab outings leading up to this season's debut, but he showed enough to believe this first start was rust.
The Astros rank 13th against RHP this season and feature a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters. Yordan Alvarez and journeyman Taylor Trammell are their only regularly starting left-handed hitters.
Jones' career wOBA against lefties is .335, while just .305 against righties. He could bounce back well if he avoids mistakes against the potential AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez.
Meanwhile, Kai-Wei Teng is in no need of a bounce-back. He has a fantastic 2.57 ERA this season, with just three earned runs allowed in his past three starts (16 IP). Teng is a recently converted starter and is only somewhat lucky according to his 3.59 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, and 3.82 SIERA.
However, Teng has a fatal flaw. His splits against left-handed hitters are exploitable.
- Teng vs LHH – .341 wOBA and 12.6% K-BB
- Teng vs RHH – .213 wOBA and 16.3% K-BB
The Pirates' lineup features several left-handed batters and switch hitters. They will likely field an offense with two righties at most today. This offense ranks fourth against RHP with a 114 wRC+ this season.
Even if Teng is knocked out early, the Astros will not have many LHP to counter Pittsburgh's offense. Bryan King and the recently activated Josh Hader are reserved for high leverage, leaving Steven Okert as the only option.
Unless Teng can provide length for the Astros, this game should be Pittsburgh's to lose.
Pick: Pirates ML (-108, FanDuel)
