Rangers vs. Twins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value On Texas As Road Underdog? (Friday, August 19)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Ezequiel Duran
Rangers vs. Twins Odds
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Minnesota Twins started their homestand with a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals and will now start a three-game series with the Texas Rangers Friday night on Apple TV+.
Every single game still matters at this point in the season for Minnesota as the Twins are just a game behind Cleveland for the lead in the American League Central division entering play Friday.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have just fired their manager and team president recently and enter this series with a 53-65 record, 10.5 games behind the third wild card spot in the American League.
Who will get the job done and take home the victory in this one?
Can Rangers Thump Bundy?
Dylan Bundy will start for Minnesota in this one. Bundy has a 4.76 ERA on the season and his xFIP is slightly worse at 4.92. He’s allowed a .189 ISO to right-handed hitters, .169 ISO to left-handed hitters and a 42% fly ball percentage.
Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia are the main two power hitters to watch for the Rangers in this one as each of them have an ISO above .197 against right-handed pitching this season.
Garcia’s matchup with Bundy is especially good as he has a .246 ISO against sliders from right-handed pitchers over the last three years and Bundy throws a slider to right-handed hitters 43% of the time, the most of any of his pitches.
Bundy has been much better at home, though, as he has a 2.83 ERA at home compared to a 5.83 ERA on the road this year.
The Rangers are seventh in all of baseball averaging 4.74 runs per game on the road this season.
Twins Could Find Success Against Perez
Martin Perez has a 2.79 ERA this season, but his xFIP is much higher at 4.26. Perez has allowed just a .113 ISO to right-handed hitters this season.
Jose Miranda will be the big bat to watch in the Twins lineup in this one as he has a .272 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Perez has pitched well in five of his last six starts, but his one bad outing was quite bad. He allowed seven earned runs against the Astros on the road.
Perez has a 2.97 ERA on the road this season. The Twins are 18th in all of baseball averaging 4.17 runs per game at home this season.
Minnesota is 35-25 (.576 WP) at home this season and still fighting for the playoffs, unlike the Rangers.
This is a tough game for me to call as the model I use has a heavy lean to the Rangers side. But part of me can’t shake the fact that taking the Rangers is backing a team that just fired their manager and team president recently, and fading a Twins team with a lot left to play for in the middle of an important homestand as it relates to their playoff chances.
I’ll green light a small bet on the Rangers moneyline at +120 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but that’s it. Not going overboard in this matchup considering where these two teams are in the standings.
Pick: Rangers ML +120
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