Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds, Picks | MLB Betting Guide
Via Paul Rutherford/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox throws to first base during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Fenway Park on June 27, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts.
- The Blue Jays are short home favorites on Friday night when they host the Red Sox.
- Boston has been floundering lately, but this may be a spot for the Red Sox's bats to bounce back against Jose Berrios.
- Nick Martin breaks down the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup and shares his top betting pick and prediction below.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Red Sox Odds|
|Blue Jays Odds|
Boston will head to Toronto looking to snap its five-game losing streak and get some ground back in the AL Wild Card race. The Red Sox are five games behind the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot and are +120 underdogs in a matchup pitting James Paxton (3.19 ERA, 42 and 1/3 innings pitched) against Jose Berrios (3.60 ERA, 95 IP).
Boston has fallen into the worst offensive rut of its season, which has led to a 1-7 run over the last eight games. The pitching, and defensive play will likely always be concerns, but it's easy to believe that offensively the Sox will snap out of this funk soon.
Over the last 30 days, Boston has hit to a wRC+ of just 93, which is among the worst single-month samples of the last two seasons. They still own an above average BB/K Ratio of 0.39, which displays a solid process at the plate. The power hitting has not been there, however, and the Red Sox have slugged just .395 in June.
Boston has hit to a wRC+ of 102 with a wOBA of .325 versus right-handed pitching this season. Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo have all hit breaking stuff from righties quite well this season, and they will be tough outs for Berrios.
Boston faced Berrios in hitter-friendly conditions at Fenway on May 1 earlier this year, and the Sox put up 11 hits and 5 earned runs in five and 1/3 innings.
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Jose Berrios's dominant 2023 season has been key for the Jays after the loss of Alek Manoah. He's eaten up a ton of innings as usual, but he has done so in surprisingly dominant fashion with an ERA of 3.60 as he has had drastically better command of his stuff.
However, his xERA is over a full run higher at 4.64, and his xFIP is 4.07. His recent expected marks are consistent with those numbers as well, and it is not simply a bad start to the season tanking those numbers.
Berrios's deep arsenal is rating well though, and the numbers agree with the obvious take that he has on average had better command this year. His Stuff+ comes in at 101, and his Location+ is 102.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
This matchup sets up a favorable spot to bet on the Red Sox lineup returning to form. Their results versus right-handed pitching this season are still strong, and I believe the talent on hand dictates that is no fluke.
Jose Berrios is still a potential blow-up candidate, and I'm happy to fade him here even though he is legitimately pitching much better than a year ago. Boston is +145 to record over 1.5 runs in the first 3 innings, and I see a lot of upside with that price. Berrios is also priced at -105 to allow over 2.5 earned runs, and I like a play on that as well.
Targeting some alternative lines involving a nightmare day for Berrios early on at long numbers is also quite appealing.