Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Expert Pick | Prediction for MLB Sunday Night Baseball

Red Sox vs Yankees Odds, Expert Pick | Prediction for MLB Sunday Night Baseball article feature image

Via Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Clarke Schmidt #36 of the New York Yankees looks on during the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on May 31, 2023 in Seattle, Washington.

  • The Yankees are short home favorites in the rubber match of their first series this season with the Red Sox.
  • After the first two games went under the total, Tanner McGrath thinks both starting pitchers are undervalued in the series finale at Yankee Stadium.
  • Find his expert pick and analysis for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball below.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Sunday, June 11
7:10 p.m. ET
Red Sox Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105/ -115
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105/ -115
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Finally, for the first time this season, baseball's biggest rivalry takes the sport's biggest stage as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

Pretty good!

Unfortunately, this rivalry means less now that both teams get it handed to them by the Rays. Also, the true hate formerly involved in this rivalry seems to have subsided.

Although, there are still some contentious moments that remind one of the early-2000s.

Giancarlo not happy

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 11, 2023

That said, Red Sox vs. Yankees is still as entertaining as ever. These are two hard-hitting offenses with solid back-end bullpen pieces, even if the rotations are questionable.

However, I like today's starting pitching matchup a lot, and these offenses haven't been so hard-hitting lately.

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Boston Red Sox

It feels like the Red Sox are running in place. This lineup is deep, and they grind through at-bats, but they haven't shown any meaningful results lately.

The Sox put together an eight-game win streak between April 29 and May 6, but they're 11-17 since, and they've lost five of their past seven. Unfortunately, it's not hard to see where the problem is.

The offense is a joke right now

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) June 11, 2023

Boston boasts a 94 wRC+ over the past 30 days, good for 22nd in baseball.

There's no one place to place the blame. ROY favorite Masataka Yoshida is regressing after an uber-hot start (.676 OPS since June 1), and so has Alex Verdugo (.684 OPS since May 10). Even Rafael Devers isn't hitting at his usual levels (.592 OPS since May 20), although he's been incredibly unlucky.

He is the 26th by xwOBA – wOBA and 22nd by xBA – BA

— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) June 11, 2023

Speaking of unlucky… it's so satisfying to see Tristan Casas turn it around. The young first baseman has always had high-quality at-bats, but not a single batted ball went his way. Finally, Casas has four singles, four extra-base hits and four walks in his last 34 PAs, piling up a .997 OPS since June 1.

Unfortunately, a lot of Casas's goodwill has been canceled out by another young Sox player. After a red-hot start to the season, Jarren Durant has fallen off a cliff, posting a 41 wRC+ in June (so far) compared to a 183 wRC+ in April.

The Red Sox were built around being a great offensive team, as their pitching and defense are too volatile to consistently lean on (and the defense has been horrific recently, especially in the series against Cleveland). So, when the Sox aren't hitting, they generally aren't winning.

Starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (RHP)

In seven starts since May 1, Bello has pitched 38 innings with a 2.84 ERA and a 57.5% Ground-ball Rate.

This is the pitcher the Red Sox front office has been dreaming about.

Bello has fully harnessed the power and command of his arsenal. His sinker-slider-change mix is working to perfection, forcing a unique combination of whiffs and weak contact.

I love how Bello can work against both splits by throwing the slider to lefties and change to righties…

Brayan Bello, Annihilating the Side.

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 5, 2023

He's still better against right-handed hitting, but Bello can be effective against both sides.

Bello's peripherals suggest regression, but I'm not so sure. His BABIP is .296 during this seven-game stretch, and his xBA (.246) is only four points higher than his BA (.242).

Good things will happen when you put the ball on the ground and force strikeouts so often, and that's what Bello is currently doing.

New York Yankees

I think the Yankees are the team to buy in the AL East, given how they're improving health-wise (Carlos Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton) and rotation-wise (I'm impressed by Domingo German's yearly improvements).

However, that was before Aaron Judge went down with a "right toe contusion" and "sprain of the ligament."

The defending MVP is only on the 10-day IL, but nobody can make an actual guess at his return. And that's a bad thing, given the Yankees are so dependent on his bat in the middle of the lineup and his glove in any outfield spot.

For example, the Yankees have scored 15 runs in five games since Judge hit that wall at Dodger Stadium.

To make matters worse, Anthony Rizzo is in a 1-for-27 slump, the Anthony Volpe-DJ LeMahieu-Oswaldo Cabrera trio is hitting a combined .209, and Harrison Bader went down after playing stellar defense in center field.

Part of me thinks the Yankees are over-dependant on one player, but I'm not ready to go all-in on that analysis. When the Yankees are healthy and clicking, they combine elite hitting with elite defense and an elite bullpen.

I love the Bronx bullpen. The Yankees have ranked among the top five in reliever xFIP and Win Probability Added all year, and they rank first in reliever ERA over the past two weeks (1.63 across 153 batters faced).

Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta are still the top two guys, but Michael King and Ian Hamilton have stepped in and produced serious results in the back half of Yankee games (combined 1.4 fWAR).

Altogether, the results have been outstanding.

#Yankees bullpen have truly been the best in the MLB this season.

— Depressed New York Fan (@JudgeEnjoyer) June 9, 2023

Starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt (RHP)

I mentioned briefly how I believe the Yankees are improving rotation-wise, and I believe Clarke Schmidt is a big reason why.

So, the results haven't been there yet. He's blown up a few times (five ER at Texas, seven ER vs. Tampa), but he also has slowly started to put together more consistent starts.

For example, he's allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts and pitched to a 2.49 ERA over the past four.

And, perhaps more importantly, pitching models love him. Schmidt boasts a 108 Stuff+ rating, a 105 Location+ rating and a 108 Pitching+ rating.

To me, those numbers indicate better times ahead.

And maybe those good times are starting to arrive. His pitch mix has improved consistently month-over-month, and he's starting to generate real results with his hard, sweeping slider (now his most-used pitch).

Clarke Schmidt is making a case to stick around 📈

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) June 6, 2023

Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Pick

The Red Sox aren't hitting, the Yankees are struggling without their best offensive player, and I believe both starting pitchers are undervalued and showing vast improvements.

Additionally, both of those bullpens enter this game rested, given how few relievers were used in Saturday's game. I'm very high on the Yankees' bullpen, but I'm also relatively high on the Red Sox's bullpen too (Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have been massive for the Red Sox).

All-in-all, we're looking at a low-scoring affair.

The first two games of this series stayed under, so I'm willing to bet that happens one more time.

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