Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Runs to be Limited (Thursday, May 5)

Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Runs to be Limited (Thursday, May 5) article feature image

Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Adrian Houser

  • The Reds and Brewers face off in a NL Central matchup on Thursday afternoon.
  • Both teams have struggled against right-handers this season, meaning runs should be tough to come by.
  • MLB betting analyst Tony Sartori shares his best bet below.

Reds vs. Brewers Odds

Reds Odds+160
Brewers Odds-190
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time1:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final contest of this National League Central series as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee is looking to continue to build its division lead, while the Reds, owners of the worst record in baseball, continue to search for answers.

Will the Brewers continue their winnings ways, or can the Reds finally steal a win?

Cincinnati Reds: Can Greene Keep Club in the Game?

The Cincinnati Reds enter this contest in awful form as they are just 3-21 on the season. A big reason for this brutal start to the season has been their inability to score runs as they rank dead last in the league in runs scored per game.

I do not expect any difference in this game as the Reds are slated to go against right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, the Reds rank just 29th in the league in BA, 27th in wOBA, 23rd in SLG and 27th in OPS.

Cincinnati's only shot at keeping this game close is a great performance from their projected starting pitcher, right-hander Hunter Greene. Greene's surface-level numbers are not good this season as he boasts a 6.00 ERA and 1.611 WHIP through four starts.

However, his metrics suggest some positive regression may be looming. This season, opposing hitters have just a .258 xBA against him.

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Milwaukee Brewers: Houser Seeking Another Strong Start

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this matchup in great form as they have won seven of their past eight games. The main cause for the Brewers' success this season has been their excellent pitching and I expect that to continue with right-hander Adrian Houser set to take the mound.

Houser has had a great start to the season and boasts a 2.53 ERA and 1.172 WHIP through four starts. At home, Houser has been almost flawless as he possesses a 0.77 ERA and 1.029 WHIP through 11 2/3 innings pitched.

Backing up Houser is one of the best bullpens in baseball. This season, Brewers relief pitchers rank seventh in the league in ERA, seventh in wOBA and sixth in SLG.

However, this pitching staff is not always guaranteed good run support from an inconsistent offense. Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Brewers rank just 25th in the league in BA, 19th in wOBA, 18th in SLG and 19th in OPS.

Reds-Brewers Pick

I believe we are getting value in the total to go under in this game because the Reds have seen eight or more total runs scored in six of their past seven games prior to Wednesday. However, this specific matchup has all the makings of an under with two poor lineups that have bad matchups against right-handed pitching.

Add in the fact that Adrian Houser and the Brewers bullpen have been extremely good this season and I would be shocked if the Reds scored more than two runs in this game. If that is the case, we would just need five or fewer runs from the Brewers, which is something they have done in eight of their past 12 games.

Pick: Reds/Brewers u7.5 (-115) | Play up to (-125)

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