The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres on May 25, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA and MLB.TV.
The Braves enter as -140 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 8.
Find my Padres vs Braves prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
- Padres vs Braves Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115 · Play to -110)
My Braves vs Padres best bet is Spencer Schwellenbach to go over his strikeout total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Braves Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Padres vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.50/3.57 | ERA /xERA | 3.52/4.04 |
| 3.50/3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.65/3.48 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 19.8 | K-BB% | 14.9 |
| 38.3 | GB% | 47.3 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 108 |
Padres vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Offense Still Searching for Consistency
The Padres broke out a bit in yesterday's win, scoring seven runs to even up the series. However, it was just their third win over their last 10 ballgames.
San Diego has all the makings of an elite lineup, but its numbers don't back it up. Yes, the Padres are in the top 10 in team batting average, but they're also in the bottom 10% of the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The Padres offense is a volume game. They don't hit the ball hard but do put the ball in play often. However, they also have bad tendencies that a pitcher like Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach should exploit.
San Diego has the second-highest chase rate in the majors and ranks 23rd in zone swing percentage. Those metrics indicate that it's likely to fall behind in counts, especially against Schwellenbach, who has excellent command and a high CSW.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Banking on Acuña Spark to Reignite Offense
As for the Braves, they're still looking to return to form as well.
They've gotten a big offensive boost from the return of Ronald Acuña Jr., who's homered in each of his first two games back, but they have yet to look like the perennial playoff lineup that we've come to know.
Atlanta is on the outside looking in when it comes to hard contact metrics, but it's still due for some positive regression at the dish. It will be a challenge with Dylan Cease on the mound. His strikeout upside poses issues even for a team improving their discipline.
Speaking of Cease, his numbers are highly inflated by one bad outing. He comes into this start off three consecutive quality starts, during which he compiled 25 strikeouts and allowed just six earned runs.
His xERA indicates that he's due for further positive regression. This matchup will be a good barometer to see where both the Braves and Cease are.
Padres vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
This matchup should be entertaining. These two playoff-caliber teams are much closer than the moneyline indicates. The Braves are the better club and deserve to be the favorites at home, where they are 16-8 on the year.
However, I see the most value in the market on Schwellenbach's strikeouts prop. I talked about how the Padres are too undisciplined to maintain their strikeout rate and how Schwellenbach profiles to be ahead in the count consistently.
Take him to cash his strikeout prop over.
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 Strikeouts
