The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on July 22, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Stephen Kolek will start for the Padres while Edward Cabrera will toe the rubber for the Marlins in the second game of this series.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Marlins Prediction
- Padres vs Marlins pick: Under 8
My Padres vs Marlins best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Marlins Odds, Spread
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8 -115o / -105u | -115 |
Padres vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Stephen Kolek (SD) | Stat | RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.24 / 4.44 | ERA / xERA | 3.61 / 3.87 |
| 4.22 / 4.29 | FIP / xFIP | 3.70 / 3.69 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 9.4 | K-BB% | 16.1 |
| 49.5 | GB% | 45.5 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Padres vs Marlins Preview
At first glance, Kolek's season has been up and down, alternating scoreless outings with rough starts. However, most of those beatings have been at home, and his splits are telling.
Kolek's away ERA is a remarkable 2.06 compared to his atrocious 9.45 ERA in San Diego, so we should expect at least a quality start from him today. This Marlins offense doesn 't present a significant challenge either; they're 22nd in wRC+ in July.
On the other side, Cabrera holds a 2.95 ERA in his last seven outings and has a 3.16 ERA at home.
Plus, the Padres rank 23rd against right-handed pitchers in wRC+, which may force the trend of low-scoring games in this series to continue.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games" system focuses on regular-season MLB matchups in which both teams are entering the second or later game of a series after producing minimal offense in their previous outing.
When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, particularly early-to-mid series, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist—betting on the under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
Pick: Under 8
Padres vs Marlins Betting Trends
