The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on September 17, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Giants vs Diamondbacks pick: Over 9 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Giants vs Diamondbacks best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Giants vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Justin Verlander (SF) | Stat | RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-10 | W-L | 13-8 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.94 / 4.27 | ERA / xERA | 5.31 / 5.74 |
| 3.74 / 4.54 | FIP / xFIP | 4.32 / 4.00 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| 13.1% | K-BB% | 14% |
| 34.5% | GB% | 43.2% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 93 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Giants vs Diamondbacks Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Verlander Looks to Get on Track
Justin Verlander's 2024 campaign suggested his best days were behind him. Through 17 starts, Verlander posted a 5-6 record with a 5.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
His 2025 campaign proved it to be true. Through 26 appearances this year, Verlander ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate.
These issues are likely to continue against Arizona, a team Verlander has struggled against over the past two seasons. In two meetings during that stretch, he is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP.
The good news for Verlander is that he should receive plenty of run support, given that Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for the Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Pfaadt's Getting Bailed Out
Through 48 combined plate appearances against Pfaadt, this current San Francisco roster boasts a .317 batting average, .610 slugging percentage and .415 wOBA. On the other side, Pfaadt is 0-4 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the past four meetings between these two teams.
There’s an argument to be made that Pfaadt is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Through 30 starts this season, he owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse. Entering this matchup, Pfaadt possesses a 5.74 xERA and .304 xBA.
He also ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
So how does a pitcher with Pfaadt's profile carry a 13-8 record? The answer is simple: Arizona boasts one of the best lineups in baseball.
This season, the Diamondbacks rank in the top five in runs scored per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
The opposite is true for Arizona's bullpen. The Diamondbacks’ relief corps ranks in the bottom four in ERA, xERA and WAR.
Pick: Over 9 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Arizona, but I don't trust Pfaadt.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Arizona to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 9.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
