The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants on August 18, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Giants vs Padres Prediction
- Giants vs Padres picks: Giants +0.5 F5
My Giants vs Padres best bet is the Giants +0.5 in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Padres Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Giants vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Robbie Ray (SFG) | Stat | LHP Nestor Cortes (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 2.98 / 3.43 | ERA /xERA | 5.71 / 5.58 |
| 3.73 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 7.91 / 5.76 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.56 |
| 16.0% | K-BB% | 7.6% |
| 38.4% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 96 | Location+ | 110 |
John Feltman’s Giants vs Padres Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
The Giants have the worst record in baseball since June 1st, and their trade for Rafael Devers has not worked out. They were sellers at the deadline, and have been the walking mat of the NL West.
Tonight, they have Robbie Ray on the mound. He has been excellent in 2025 and enters with a 2.89 ERA and decent numbers against this Padres lineup.
The Padres are a tough team to beat, but Ray has 23 strikeouts in 93 plate appearances against them. They also do not hit lefties as well as righties, so Ray should put together another strong outing tonight.
Offensively, the Giants have a great matchup against Nestor Cortes. Cortes continues to get shelled after returning from injury and is prone to allowing a lot of hard contact.
The Giants’ offense has disappointed in 2025, but tonight is an excellent opportunity to buy low on them. They should strike Cortes to give Ray an early lead.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Tonight’s game lies on the shoulders of Nestor Cortes, who has been terrible in 2025. He missed multiple months with an injury, but he’s still been struck since he's returned.
Cortes enters tonight with a 5.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Although he has not pitched enough to register official metrics through Baseball Savant, Cortes ranks below the 10th percentile in the following metrics:
- BB%
- Hard Hit%
- Chase%
- Exit Velo
- xERA
- Barrel Rate
Despite their inconsistent offensive effort, I have a lot of concern about tonight's match against San Francisco. The Padres' offense will need to step up, but I have my doubts against Robbie Ray.
The Padres are batting .260 against Ray, but that isn’t enough to convince me they can score enough runs with Cortes on the mound. It seems like a tough spot to back them, despite how poorly the Giants have played as of late.
Giants vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like the Giants' spread tonight in the F5. You can get +110 on the moneyline at some shops, but I’ll eat some juice for the extra cushion.
I think the market is overreacting to how bad the Giants have been lately. Ray vs Cortes gives the Giants a big edge in the early going.
The bats should hit Cortes early, and I believe in Ray to hold the Padres at bay.
Pick: Giants +0.5 F5
Moneyline
I don't see value on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I like the Giants' spread in the first five innings.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals tonight.
