Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Wacha & Bogaerts (June 11)
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Wacha (Red Sox)
- Get ready for a weekend of baseball, as Tony Sartori dives into Saturday's MLB slate on PrizePicks.
- Tony is fading two Red Sox hitters and backing a couple Yankees batters.
- He also is eyeing a Michael Wacha play in the night cap.
Saturday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, June 11
Michael Wacha Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 24.5
We have the second matchup of this three-game series, as the AL West’s Seattle Mariners host the AL East’s Boston Red Sox. Through nine starts this season, Wacha is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.906 WHIP.
That being said, I expect some regression from Wacha soon, as his metrics are not nearly as strong. This season, Wacha possesses a .322 xwOBA, .254 xBA, and .422 xSLG.
We are getting incredible value with this total because Wacha is coming off a gem in his last performance, as he threw a complete game shutout against the Angels. However, the Angels are terrible.
In his lone start against the Mariners this season, Wacha registered just 17 fantasy points.
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Walks
I am also fading a few Boston hitters in this matchup, as the Red Sox are going against right-hander George Kirby. Making his debut this season, Kirby has one career start against the Red Sox.
In that game, Bogaerts went 0-for-3 with a strikeout against Kirby. While his numbers against right-handers are good this season, they take about a 10% dip relative to his numbers against left-handers.
Bogaerts has now gone under this total in five straight games.
Rafael Devers Under 1.5 Total Bases
The other Red Sox hitter I am fading in this matchup is Rafael Devers. Over his three plate appearances against Kirby, Devers went 1-for-3 with a single.
In that game, Devers went just 1-for-5. Devers has now gone under this total in four of his last six games (67%).
DJ LeMahieu Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We have the second matchup of this three-game interleague series, as the AL East’s New York Yankees host the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs on Saturday’s nationally televised game (FOX).
I am backing a few Yankees hitters in this contest, as they are slated to go against right-hander Matt Swarmer.
Swarmer has just one career start, as he did a good job in shutting down the St. Louis Cardinals at home. However, it is an entirely different beast going on the road against this Yankees lineup.
DJ LeMahieu has outstanding metrics this season, as he boasts a .364 xwOBA, .292 xBA and .471 xSLG. LeMahieu has now gone over this total in eight of his last 10 games (80%).
Josh Donaldson Over 1.5 Hits + Walks
The other Yankees hitter I am backing in this game is Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has been much stronger when facing right-handed pitchers this season, as his numbers take about a 50% jump compared to when he faces left-handers.
Donaldson’s overall metrics this season are strong, as he boasts a .359 xwOBA, .265 xBA and .475 xSLG. Going over this total in each of his last four games, Donaldson should be a good candidate to do so once again in this matchup.