The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday, June 11. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ARID and MLB.TV.
The Diamondbacks enter as short favorites of -112 on the moneyline, while the over/under sits at 9.
Read our Mariners vs Diamondbacks prediction and MLB pick below.
Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks
- Mariners vs Diamondbacks Pick: Under 9 (-115 · BetMGM)
My Diamondbacks vs. Mariners best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Odds, Spread, Lines
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -108o / -112u | -109 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -108o / -112u | -112 |
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Projected Pitchers
| RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.07 / 3.26 | ERA / xERA | 6.70 / 4.16 |
| 3.31 / 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30 / 3.92 |
| 0.96 | WHIP | 1.65 |
| 19.3% | K-BB% | 15.9% |
| 39.6% | GB% | 31.2% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 111 | Location+ | 100 |
Mariners vs Diamondbacks Pick, Best Bets
One of our Bet Labs systems, powered by Evan Abrams, went off for this game.
Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds targets regular-season games where softer home starting pitchers (low strikeout rates and moderate WHIPs) are on the mound for game three or four of the series. By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms, and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
That said, Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo is closer to elite than soft, with rock-solid good earned run indicators and rock-solid advanced pitching model metrics (104 Stuff+, 111 Location+) behind elite command and control (3.7% walk rate).
It’s harder to get excited about Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez. Still, he has been unlucky (6.70 ERA, 4.16 xERA, 3.92 xFIP), mainly because of a high BABIP (.367), low strand rate (56.2%) and a ridiculously high HR rate (1.63 HR/9 allowed).
Hopefully, E-Rod sees some positive regression against an Athletics team that hasn’t seen southpaws well over the past month (76 wRC+).
At the same time, Seattle’s offense has cooled off considerably over the past month (97 wRC+ against righties) after a scorching start to the year.
Both bullpens scare me, but not enough to talk me off the Under.
Pick: Under 9 (-115 · BetMGM)
