The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on August 10, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -149 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick: Red Sox -146 (Play to -160)
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is the Boston moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -140 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | -149 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 8.5 -100o / -120u | +135 |
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline: Red Sox -149, Blue Jays +135
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+115), Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| RHP Sonny Gray (BOS) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2 | W-L | 2-6 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -1.1 |
| 2.78/3.69 | ERA / xERA | 5.96/6.05 |
| 3.52/3.59 | FIP / xFIP | 6.67/4.75 |
| 15.3% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 48.1% | GB% | 33.5% |
| .285 | BABIP | .258 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 97 | Location+ | 100 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox have lost two games in a row; is it time to panic? Probably not, considering they are now 27-6 since the start of July. Their torrid pace has pulled them to within a game and a half of the Yankees for the top Wild Card spot.
Boston’s entire pitching staff has been nails, anchored by Sonny Gray, who has been brilliant in his first season in Bean Town. In 21 starts, Gray has a 2.78 ERA with 106 strikeouts in 119 innings. I know nobody cares about pitcher wins these days, but 14-2 is still crazy impressive and ranks second in the league in wins.
Gray has never had overpowering stuff, but he is an incredibly smart pitcher who utilizes six different pitches to keep batters guessing. He doesn’t throw any pitches more than 20% of the time. His most effective offerings have been his sinker and sweeper. The sweeper has a 47.8% strikeout rate for Gray.
Boston’s lineup has also been locked in at the plate during their dramatic turnaround. On the season as a whole, Willson Contreras is the only player with an OPS over .800, but over the last 30 days, they have six players who clear that mark.
The Red Sox have scored the most runs in the league over the last month and sit fourth in team OPS. The extra-base hits are finally coming, and players like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela have found their power stroke.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
It has been a rough season for former top pick Jameson Taillon. He struggled mightily to a 5.92 ERA in 15 starts with the Cubs, the worst mark of his entire career. Despite needing innings, his lack of production forced Chicago to designate him for assignment on July 27. After going unclaimed, the Cubs traded him to the Blue Jays for essentially nothing.
In his first start for Toronto, Taillon allowed three runs with a pair of walks over four innings. His command has been a major issue this season. Not only does Taillon have the highest walk rate of his career, but he is also leaving things right over the middle of the plate. Taillon has allowed a staggering 15.2%-barrel rate this season.
At the plate, this has looked like a completely different Blue Jays team than the one that made a run to the World Series last season, despite bringing back almost the exact same lineup. Toronto ranks 29th in scoring on the year and has the worst team OPS in the league.
There is not a single player in this lineup with an OPS over .760. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just seven home runs on the season with a .698 OPS. George Springing is hitting just .234. Kazuma Okamoto is the only player who has shown any sort of power, but he has been streaky and inconsistent.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
The Red Sox have lost just one of Sonny Gray’s starts since early June. He has been absolutely dominant for Boston this entire season. His 14 wins lead the American League, and his 2.78 ERA ranks sixth. He has elite command, and even when the ball is put in play, he tends to keep it on the ground.
Jameson Taillon is having the worst season of his career, forcing the Cubs to DFA him a few weeks ago. Toronto was so desperate for innings they traded a PTBNL for him, but don’t expect a change of scenery to make a difference. Taillon’s xERA is somehow even worse than his current ERA, sitting at 6.07.
Taillon has a horrendous 15.2% barrel rate, one of the highest in the league. He has allowed 26 home runs this year in just 16 starts. Only two pitchers have allowed more balls to leave the park, and they have both pitched at least six more games than Taillon.
Monday night should be a home run fest for a Boston team that ranks second in the league in slugging percentage over the last month. The Red Sox have hit 35 home runs in their last 25 games and have 20 dingers in the last 14 games.
Boston clearly has a massive advantage in starting pitching, but that advantage does not get any smaller when the starters exit. The Red Sox have the best bullpen in baseball. According to B.A.R.T.O.L.O., the Boston bullpen ranks No. 1, and Toronto’s sits at No. 21 in their current form.
The Blue Jays are coming off back-to-back extra-inning games in Philadelphia, putting a tax on their relievers. Closer Louis Varland is likely unavailable, as are Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, and Spencer Miles.
Just like on the mound, Boston has a massive advantage at the plate right now. The Red Sox have scored the most runs and sit fourth in team OPS over the last month. Toronto ranks in the bottom five in runs, OPS, and home runs over that stretch and on the season as a whole.
Expect the Red Sox to bounce back with Gray on the mound and continue their winning ways. Toronto has been one of the worst teams in baseball all season. Given Boston’s sizable advantage on offense and in pitching throughout this game, I am willing to lay the juice with them here.
Pick: Red Sox -146 (Play to -160)
