Sunday MLB Odds, Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top Picks, Including Reds vs. Dodgers, Braves vs. Padres & More (April 17)
Michael Zarrilli/Getty Images. Pictured: Dansby Swanson celebrates his home run during Game 4.
- Our MLB analysts have five bets to satiate your betting needs on Sunday.
- Our analysts have found value on four totals and one spread bet.
- Check out their picks and analysis below.
Sundays are for baseball, and we’ve got a full slate starting this afternoon and rolling along through the evening.
There’s plenty of intrigue across the board, and our analysts have pin-pointed five games with value: Yankees vs. Orioles, Cubs vs. Rockies, Reds vs. Dodgers, Astros vs. Mariners, and Braves vs. Padres.
Here are our five best bets from Sunday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 7:08 p.m. ET | |
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nick Martin: Nestor Cortes displayed a ton of upside in 2021, and he has shown every indication that this could be a big year for him. It's fair to assume he offers a significant pitching advantage in favor of New York here.
Camden Yards has been great to this current Yankees lineup. Even though there may not be as many cheap home runs with the adjustments to the left-field wall, I still expect the Yanks to make life rough for Bruce Zimmermann Sunday.
We could see some different looking Sunday lineups here. Even if that's the case, I'm happy to lock in the Yankees First Five -0.5 as soon as I can in a spot where they have a massive starting-pitching advantage.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Tony Sartori: We are getting value in this total because the game is being played at Coors Field, and the public loves to bet overs in Denver. However, the metrics in this contest suggest 11 is just too high of an adjustment.
Cubs starter Drew Smyly was solid in his season debut, allowing three hits over five scoreless innings. While that outing was against the Pirates, Smyly's metrics suggest he could still see that strong play continue, as he registered a .197 xwOBA, .202 xBA and .256 xSLG.
After Smyly, the Cubs bullpen should be reliable, entering Saturday's matchup ranked eighth in the league in ERA and 13th in on-base percentage.
On the other hand, Chicago's offense may prove to be unreliable in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Austin Gomber. Despite the small sample size, the Cubs have not had much success against Gomber. In 29 career plate appearances against the lefty, this Cubs team posts a mere .172 xBA, .429 xSLG and .312 xwOBA.
Additionally, the weather should not be a factor, as the forecast calls for mild wind going from left to right across the field.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Arinze: As bad as the Reds have been this season, Tyler Mahle certainly gives them a chance to get back in the win column. After all, the Reds are 3-1 in his starts when facing the Dodgers. During his lone visit to Dodger Stadium in 2019, Mahle pitched six shutout innings as the Reds went on to win 4-0.
However, Cincinnati's anemic offense certainly gives me cause for concern. Despite all the talk about this Dodgers offense, the total is 5-2-1 to the under in their eight games. As a result, I'd recommend a play on the under if you plan to get involved in this game. Mahle should also benefit from being in more of a pitcher's park than the oft-considered bandbox at Great American Ball Park.
When Mahle's on the road and the opening total is no higher than nine runs, the under is 24-15-3 for 7.41 units. In addition, all four of his starts against the Dodgers also resulted in no more than eight runs.
The over/under is currently sitting at 8.5, and BetMGM has the best price on the board at +100. Make sure you shop around to ensure you grab the hook when playing this under the total.
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Jules Posner: Although José Urquidy isn't a marquee name, he's certainly a well-above-average pitcher. With Matt Brash making his home debut, T-Mobile Park is going to be bumping.
The Astros offense has been a little slow out of the gates, and the Mariners have been a little erratic in the early going. Furthermore, both bullpens have been solid to start the year.
Considering this and the forecast for tomorrow afternoon's game, the under seems like a great play in this divisional matchup.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
| 7:08 p.m. ET |
Brad Cunningham: With the inexperience of Bryce Elder in his second start and the struggles of Yu Darvish early on in 2021, I think we are going to see runs early on Sunday Night Baseball.
Additionally, both offenses have a decent matchup against the opposing pitch arsenal, along with being above average against right handed pitching.
I have 4.89 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 4 runs at -110 (DraftKings).
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