The Tampa Bay Rays (53-50) and Cincinnati Reds (53-50) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
Cincinnati is a -112 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay is -108 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 9.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Rays vs Reds predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 25.
Rays vs Reds Picks, Prediction
- Rays vs Reds pick: Under 9.5 (-110)
My Reds vs. Rays best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Reds Odds for Friday, July 25
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -112 |
Rays vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TBR) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 8-9 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.53 / 4.59 | ERA / xERA | 4.73 / 4.12 |
| 4.83 / 4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.18 / 4.45 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 13.6% | K-BB% | 11.3% |
| 41.4% | GB% | 37.4% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 104 | Location+ | 109 |
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Preview
Zack Littell gets the start for Tampa Bay after a mixed series against the White Sox.
Cincinnati counters with Nick Martinez, who’s quietly gone 4-1 over his last five starts and continues to deliver solid outings by mixing speeds and locations.
Both bullpens are serviceable, and neither offense is riding a hot streak. The Rays just dropped two high-scoring games to Chicago but managed only four runs in their lone win.
The Reds, meanwhile, were shut out 5-0 in their most recent game after a couple of volatile results against Washington.
At first glance, this matchup might not scream "Under", but market movement tells a different story.
This game fits squarely into Evan Abrams’ “Steam Unders with Low OU Support” system, a data-driven model that’s consistently uncovered value between 2019 and 2025.
It focuses on regular season games with closing totals between 8 and 10 runs — what Abrams calls the volatility sweet spot.
The strategy identifies games where the total drops from open to close, signaling sharp money on the under, even as the majority of public tickets continue to come in on the Over.
That mismatch between respected money and casual bettors often highlights undervalued unders.
To qualify, games must be played in mild to warm weather, with neither team riding extreme Over or Under streaks.
This ensures recent scoring trends aren’t skewing expectations, and that sharp action is reacting to real matchup value, not noise.
This matchup checks all those boxes.
Rays vs Reds Best Bet
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Rays vs Reds Betting Trends
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