Thursday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Orioles and Mariners-Angels
Enyel De Los Santos. Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
- Public MLB bettors are hammering Philadelphia tonight, but the line has fallen away from the Phils, pushing them from a favorite to a dog.
- Total bets are split on the Mariners-Angels game, but wiseguys have taken a clear side.
Pro players swung and missed on their three Wednesday plays, losing the Reds-Indians Under, Cardinals-White Sox Over and Angels moneyline. It's been a rough 48-hour stretch for the wiseguys. After a 2-0 Monday, they've gone 1-6 in the last two days.
Baseball betting is the most volatile of any sport. The 2,430-game season provides countless ups and downs. While many bettors will abandon a model after a poor recent stretch, experienced wiseguys know to stay the course and ride out the cold spells.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 6:05 p.m. and 10:07 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (-107)
6:05 p.m. ET
The Phillies are tied for the seventh-best record in baseball (51-40), while the Orioles own the worst (26-67). Public players see an easy Philly win, but wiseguys are buying low on Baltimore to steal the first game of the series. Baltimore is getting only 32% of bets but 51% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor.
Also, despite nearly 70% taking Philly, the line has moved against the Phils (-113 to -101) and toward Baltimore, pushing the O's from a dog to a favorite (+104 to -107). Goodfellas at YouWager, BetOnline and ABC all hammered Baltimore, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. The Orioles are also an AL team in interleague play, a profitable spot since 2005.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Over 7.5
10:07 p.m. ET
The Mariners beat the Angels 3-0 last night, with the Under cashing without a sweat. Today, recreational players are torn on the total. They see James Paxton (3.49 ERA) and Tyler Skaggs (2.64 ERA) going head to head and think low-scoring game, but they also see a low total that feels like it's bound to go Over. Sharps have made up their mind.
The Over is getting 52% of bets, but it accounts for 84% of dollars, indicating heavy smart Over money. Pro players at YouWager and BetOnline both got down hard on the Over 7.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves (with no conflicting Under moves). The total opened at a juiced up 7.5 (Under -123), indicating Under liability. However, the juice has since trended Over, going from 7.5 Over +111 to 7.5 Over -106. This indicates liability transitioning from Under to Over.
An added bonus for wiseguy Over backers: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 4 to 7 mph.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
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