Thursday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Orioles and Mariners-Angels
Enyel De Los Santos. Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
- Public MLB bettors are hammering Philadelphia tonight, but the line has fallen away from the Phils, pushing them from a favorite to a dog.
- Total bets are split on the Mariners-Angels game, but wiseguys have taken a clear side.
Pro players swung and missed on their three Wednesday plays, losing the Reds-Indians Under, Cardinals-White Sox Over and Angels moneyline. It’s been a rough 48-hour stretch for the wiseguys. After a 2-0 Monday, they’ve gone 1-6 in the last two days.
Baseball betting is the most volatile of any sport. The 2,430-game season provides countless ups and downs. While many bettors will abandon a model after a poor recent stretch, experienced wiseguys know to stay the course and ride out the cold spells.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 6:05 p.m. and 10:07 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (-107)
6:05 p.m. ET
The Phillies are tied for the seventh-best record in baseball (51-40), while the Orioles own the worst (26-67). Public players see an easy Philly win, but wiseguys are buying low on Baltimore to steal the first game of the series. Baltimore is getting only 32% of bets but 51% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor.
Also, despite nearly 70% taking Philly, the line has moved against the Phils (-113 to -101) and toward Baltimore, pushing the O’s from a dog to a favorite (+104 to -107). Goodfellas at YouWager, BetOnline and ABC all hammered Baltimore, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. The Orioles are also an AL team in interleague play, a profitable spot since 2005.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Over 7.5
10:07 p.m. ET
The Mariners beat the Angels 3-0 last night, with the Under cashing without a sweat. Today, recreational players are torn on the total. They see James Paxton (3.49 ERA) and Tyler Skaggs (2.64 ERA) going head to head and think low-scoring game, but they also see a low total that feels like it’s bound to go Over. Sharps have made up their mind.
The Over is getting 52% of bets, but it accounts for 84% of dollars, indicating heavy smart Over money. Pro players at YouWager and BetOnline both got down hard on the Over 7.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves (with no conflicting Under moves). The total opened at a juiced up 7.5 (Under -123), indicating Under liability. However, the juice has since trended Over, going from 7.5 Over +111 to 7.5 Over -106. This indicates liability transitioning from Under to Over.
An added bonus for wiseguy Over backers: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 4 to 7 mph.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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