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Tigers vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet on Kershaw to Dominate Detroit (April 30)

Tigers vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet on Kershaw to Dominate Detroit (April 30) article feature image
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Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw

  • The Dodgers are huge favorites behind Clayton Kershaw against the Tigers tonight.
  • Given the juice, how can you find value on Los Angeles against last-place Detroit?
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting prediction.

Tigers vs. Dodgers Odds

Tigers Odds +280
Dodgers Odds -350
Over/Under 7.5 (-112 / -108)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Tigers are ice-cold at the moment, and there is little value in fading them these days with oddsmakers catching up to the poor performance.

With that in mind, is the total going to be what’s most worth targeting here? Let’s dig into this matchup.

Nothing Going Right For Tigers

The Tigers are now winless in six straight games, going down without much of a fight in a 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Dodgers on Friday night. Detroit has now scored a combined two runs in the last three games and ranks 29th with 3.11 runs per game to this point.

Detroit ranks 11th in walk rate and 19th in strikeout rate, which aren’t terrible marks. On top of that, it is 15th in contact rate. There are certainly a few positives about how the at-bats the Tigers are having, but little is going to get done when you’re down in 26th in hard-hit rate at 34.6%.

Beau Brieske will be starting this one for Detroit, and the jury is still very much out on him. The 24-year-old allowed three runs on three hits and two walks over five innings in his major-league debut and will be looking to build on that performance.

He did allow two homers in those five frames so he was a bit fortunate to escape with just the three earned runs, but a 0.7 homers per nine in the minors helps soften that blow a bit.

He was pretty effective in his minor-league career with a 3.22 ERA and throws hard, so he could pan out here for Detroit.

Dodgers’ Kershaw Remains Elite

The Dodgers have someone throwing on Friday who’s already panned out. His name is Clayton Kershaw, and he could be on the way to the best season of his career.

So far in 2022, he’s posted a 37.7% strikeout rate which would be the best since he broke into the league in 2008 and his hard-hit rate of 24.3% is also the best mark since the advent of Statcast.

Kershaw has also yet to walk a single hitter this season, which makes the strikeouts and soft contact all the more impressive. He had one hiccup, allowing four runs on six hits over five frames against the Atlanta Braves, but that’s it.

He shut down the Twins and Padres, surrendering just four hits over 12 innings of one-run ball. He should be more than ready for the Tigers.

I spent two paragraphs on the Dodgers’ starter because we already know how lethal this offense is. After a bizarre two-game slump where they mustered up just four runs against the Diamondbacks, this murderer’s row returned on Friday with five runs in a much-needed win.

L.A. is still averaging five runs per game and is far and away the best offensive team in baseball.

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Tigers-Dodgers Pick

It’s never fun taking an under when the Dodgers are involved because they can single-handedly shatter a total.

With that being said, I’m finding it hard to believe Detroit can muster up any sort of offense here against Kershaw and arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

The only thing the Tigers have really been able to do to get into games is draw walks, and given Kershaw has yet to walk a single hitter it doesn’t appear they’ll be able to get any sort of traffic on the base paths.

On the other side of the coin, I’m mildly interested in Brieske. I don’t expect a shutout here, but I do think he’s a tad undervalued given the nature of his first big-league start. He has put up solid numbers throughout his minor-league career and I trust him to do well enough here to give up three or four runs.

Pick: Under 8

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