The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 29, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Orioles snagged Game 1 of this series convincingly and will look to start right in this doubleheader on Tuesday.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction for Game 1 of Tuesday's doubleheader below.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction and Pick
- Blue Jays vs Orioles Expert Picks: Orioles ML (-137 | Play to -140)
My Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet is on the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | +112 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | -137 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| LHP Easton Lucas (TOR) | Stat | RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 6-8 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.82 / 5.88 | ERA / xERA | 5.48 / 4.34 |
| 5.44 / 4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 4.76 / 4.27 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.54 |
| 12.9 | 12K-BB% | 2.2 |
| 36.1 | GB% | 41.9% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 91 | Location+ | 95 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles Best Bet, Preview
Why The Blue Jays Can Win
The Blue Jays had an off-game on Sunday and scored four on Monday, leading to a pair of losses. The sudden lack of offense is strange for a team that leads the league with a 133 wRC+ this month, more than 10 points above the next best.
Toronto is the only team in MLB to have a walk rate above 9% with a strikeout rate below 20%. Nobody is even close to matching the Blue Jays' strikeout rate, which sits at 16.2% across their past 21 games.
Good luck finding four players hitting better than Addison Barger, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer. Each of them has a wRC+ above 140 in their past 80 at-bats.
Of note, Springer left Monday's game in the ninth inning after taking a pitch to the head. With the quick turnaround, he could be out. Meanwhile, Alejandro Kirk is on the IL with a concussion.
The problem here is the Blue Jays' pitching options. Chris Bassitt tossed just 2 1/3 innings on Monday, which likely limits their weapons for the doubleheader. Lefties Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty might not be options. And Toronto still hasn't announced a starter.
My best guess is Toronto calls up Easton Lucas for bulk innings in game one, and that's part of my thinking in backing Baltimore. Lucas posted a 5.82 ERA in five outings with Toronto in April and May and has a 4.85 ERA in the minors. He's a fadeable pitcher.
Why The Orioles Can Win
On the hill for the Orioles in Game 1 is veteran Charlie Morton, who will likely be making his final start with the club as the trade deadline is approaching. He's made himself an appealing trade option for contenders, boasting a 3.93 ERA across his past 15 outings (11 starts). On the surface, Morton's 5.48 ERA is rough, but he's pitching better lately.
However, Morton will need to tame his walk numbers. He's walked three or more batters in three consecutive outings, while punching out seven or more in five of his past nine outings.
The Jays, as I touched on, rarely strike out and walk a ton, so Morton will need to work quicker at-bats to get deeper into his outing.
Moreover, he has done well to limit damage, allowing three or fewer runs in eight of his past 10 starts. The bad one in there was terrible, as the Rays destroyed Morton for seven runs across 5 1/3 innings two starts ago. But he's much better than his numbers indicate, and someone I'm willing to back here.
Stud closer Felix Bautista is on the injured list, while Bryan Baker was dealt to the Rays and Gregory Soto to the Mets. If the Orioles lead late, it’ll be a steady diet of Yennier Cano, Andrew Kittredge, and Seranthony Dominguez. While that's a lot less potent than the fireballers in Bautista and Soto, it's good enough to seal the deal.
The Orioles' offense is finally close to being whole. That wasn't the case for much of the year, as Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson each missed extended periods due to injury. They rank 20th among MLB lineups with a 96 wRC+ in July, and that includes Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Wesburg going off, but they'll only improve from there.
A lack of patience at the plate and overall contact hitting plagues this Orioles squad. They have a brutal 6.3% walk rate in July, but they can punish the baseball with serious power. We saw that in the series opener, as Baltimore tallied ten runs and seven extra-base hits through the first five innings.
Rutschman tallied two of the extra-base hits. He's not the hitter he was a few years ago, but he's a gigantic upgrade over Jacob Stallings and Alex Jackson.
Their offense will be a top-15 offense — if not better — for the rest of the year. I'm buying stock in Baltimore's healthy bats.
How To Make Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks
I'm loving the look of the Orioles right now.
For one, they have the better pitcher in this matchup.
Secondly, the Orioles can hit! That was never the question; it was about health and fitting the pieces together.
Now, things are clicking, and I want to back a healthy Orioles team over a Blue Jays squad that could be without two of their five best bats.
Pick: Orioles ML (-137, DraftKings)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I really like the Orioles here
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the spread.
Over/Under
I'm not interested in the total for this game.
