MLB Player Props: Tuesday’s 2 Bets for Trevor Williams & Adam Wainwright
Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Wainwright
- There's a full slate of MLB tonight, which means a full slate of props to pick from.
- Our analysts has targeted two pitchers, with one under pick and one over on strikeouts.
- Continue reading for his picks and full analysis from tonight's props market.
I hope everyone had a wonderful Memorial Day Weekend.
On your return to the office, or the classroom, or the real world in general, I’ve found two strikeout props for today’s MLB slate that provide value. This includes one over and one under.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Trevor Williams under 3.5 Strikeouts (-132)
|Nationals @ Mets|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Trevor Williams has vacillated between the rotation and the bullpen this season. The Mets have likely needed to move him around given the injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.
Williams has done fine with his opportunities, recording 0.3 fWAR over 22 2/3 innings. He also pairs his 4.37 ERA with a 3.36 xFIP and a 2.66 xERA, so plenty of positive regression is coming.
But Williams will not give you length. He has yet to throw more than four innings this season — reaching that mark just once — and is generally limited to 50 pitches.
With such a short leash, that gives us a solid edge towards the under. Expect the Mets to utilize the bullpen a lot today.
During Williams’ starts, he’s only striking out bout 8.7 batters per nine innings. Meanwhile, his CSW rate is just 24.7%, which ranks in just the 15th percentile of starting pitchers.
Williams’ walk rate (4.1%) and avg. exit velocity allowed (87.3 mph) are both excellent. But his whiff rate and chase rate both rank below the 30th percentile, and those are the stats we strikeout bettors care about.
Meanwhile, over the last 30 days and against RHPs, the Nationals have the third-lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) and the ninth-highest wRC+ (114). While the latter stat could regress, the Nationals have always been an elite plate-discipline team led by plate discipline guru Juan Soto.
It’ll be tough to eclipse 3.5 strikeouts for Williams with a limited pitch count against a disciplined Washington lineup. The projections I’ve seen put this number closer to 2.6 than 3.5, and I’ll take the value with the under.
Pick: Under 3.5 Ks (-132)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Adam Wainwright over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
|Padres @ Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
It’s been a tougher year for Adam Wainwright, whose strikeout rate has fallen all the way to 6.5 K/9. He’s cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in just two of his last six starts, although three of those unders came on the road.
At home this season, Wainwright is actually 3-1 to over 3.5 Ks.
Meanwhile, unlike Williams, Waino will always give you plenty of length. He’s eclipsed 90 pitches in seven straight starts, hitting 100 twice.
That’s why this number is too low. Four strikeouts over six or seven innings is totally possible for Waino, who has managed at least four Ks in 32 of his last 41 starts dating back to last season.
We’ll see some positive regression for Wainwright moving forward, as most projections have him finishing the season with above 7.0 K/9. While the strikeouts haven’t come, he’s still around league-average in CSW rate (27.8%).
Over the last 30 days, the Padres’ offense is 28th in wRC+ (79) and 22nd in walk rate (7.1%). The strikeouts have remained steady (22.5 K%, 13th in MLB), but the offense as a whole has regressed from a super-hot start.
Wainwright needs to see some positive regression while the Padres are slumping. It seems like the perfect spot to target a long-time ace who shouldn’t have a strikeout number this low.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Waino for 4.5 Ks today, giving us enough of an edge to play this over Tuesday evening.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10