Twins vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Sunday, July 2
Via Nick Wosika/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray #54 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning at Target Field on June 15, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Twins vs. Orioles Odds
-120 / -102
-120 / -102
Minnesota won each of the first two matchups of this series and now looks to complete the sweep. Will the Twins take care of business, or can the Orioles defend their home diamond?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Twins vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.
Right-hander Sonny Gray is slated to take the mound for the Minnesota Twins and could be a fade candidate. Through 16 starts this season, Gray possesses a 2.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
While those are obviously terrific surface-level stats, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 48th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and xBA.
Specifically, we are going to fade Gray in the strikeout department. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 56th percentile in K% and the 37th percentile in Chase Rate.
Gray possesses a six-pitch arsenal and does a tremendous job mixing them to keep opposing hitters on their toes. With that said, his sweeper is really the only dominant pitch he possesses, and he throws it the second-least, ahead of only his changeup.
The right-hander has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in each of his past six starts. That trend is likely to continue against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday.
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It has been a terrific season thus far for the Orioles, who are in second place in a loaded AL East.
On top of that, they do a good job at avoiding strikeouts. When facing right-handed pitching, Baltimore ranks ninth in K%.
Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, four of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 19% this season.
Twins vs. Orioles Betting Pick
Gray will likely continue to struggle generating swings and misses today. Through 12 career starts against Baltimore, the right-hander possesses a fade-worthy 4.60 ERA.
He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in seven of those 12 starts. With regression likely looming for Gray, now is the time to sell high on a guy over-performing.