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White Sox vs. Astros MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on the Astros at Home (Friday, June 17)

White Sox vs. Astros MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on the Astros at Home (Friday, June 17) article feature image
Credit:

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros.

  • The White Sox and Astros will face off in Houston Friday night in a rematch of their postseason series.
  • The Astros are solid favorites at home entering the matchup.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup, including his betting pick.

White Sox vs. Astros Odds

White Sox Odds +140
Astros Odds -160
Over/Under 8
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Houston Astros and the Chicago White Sox met in the first round of the playoffs last year with the Astros dispatching the White Sox on their way to winning the American League pennant.

Chicago’s 2022 also isn’t up to par compared to the Astros as the White Sox are a game below .500 with a 30-31 record, five games back in the division and three games back in the Wild Card. Houston has a 39-24 record and lead by nine games in their division.

Who will get the job done in this rematch from last year’s playoffs?

Lucas Giolito Struggling in Recent Starts 

While Lucas Giolito is also a quality starting pitcher, this is an interesting matchup against the Astros. Giolito has a 30% K% on the season, but the Astros have just two hitters in their projected lineup with a K% above 21% against right-handed pitching this season.

He’s also had a tough time keeping the other team off the scoreboard recently as he’s allowed 15 runs over his last three starts combined. On the season, Giolito has a 3.88 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 30% K%, 9% BB%, and 34% ground ball percentage.

He’s allowed a .333 ISO to right-handed batters this season and the Astros have a heavily right-handed lineup led by Jose Altuve, who has a .209 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.


Matchup Favors Astros Pitcher Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez continues to establish himself as a quality starting pitcher. This season Valdez has a 2.64 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 19% K%, 9% BB%, and 67% ground ball percentage. In 12 starts this year, he’s failed to complete six innings just twice and he’s allowed more than two earned runs just three times. Valdez has struck out at least five batters in six of his last seven starts.

The White Sox have a heavily right-handed lineup and just three of their hitters have a K% below 20% against left-handed pitching this season. The one batter Valdez will certainly have to worry about in this matchup is Luis Robert. Against right-handed batters, Valdez will rely on his sinker, curveball and changeup.

Over the last three seasons, Robert has a .357 ISO against sinkers from lefties, a .500 ISO against curveballs from lefties, and a .389 ISO against changeups from lefties.

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White Sox-Astros Pick

I like the Astros here. Valdez has been consistently good this season and he should be able to keep the ball on the ground at home against the White Sox. The Astros’ offense should produce power against Giolito, whose had three bad starts in a row now including two that were on the road.

The White Sox will also be without closer Liam Hendricks for this game as he’s currently on the injured list, further hampering their ability to prevent runs. I’m taking the Astros on the moneyline at -160.

Pick: Astros ML (-160)

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