Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, July 24.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
It is the battle of the lefties tonight in Tampa. Joey Cantillo will face off against Shane McClanahan to kick this series off.
Cantillo is having a solid season, but his recent starts are astounding. He has a 2.31 ERA, backed by a 2.90 xERA and 3.13 xFIP since June 13. He is striking out 29.9% of batters in this stretch, while walking 9.8%.
While the Rays' offense is excellent at home, they rank 17th against LHP (95 wRC+).
Meanwhile, McClanahan has had an excellent season thus far as he returns from a plethora of arm issues. His 3.16 ERA is impressive, especially for a guy who has not pitched since 2023. However, his peripheral stats are all a full run above his ERA.
A 14.3% K-BB and HR/FB halfway to his career rates suggest McClanahan's luck will run out eventually. He is pitching better at home than on the road, but his numbers of late have been especially poor.
McClanahan since June: 4.25 ERA, 4.85 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 12.8% K-BB
He will be facing a Guardians offense that just got lefty-masher and all-around superstar Jose Ramirez back from the Injured List. Regardless, the Guardians' lineup has produced top-ten numbers in the past two weeks (114 wRC+).
Picks: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+110)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Pick
We are rolling with the Red Sox to get back into the win column after their first loss in over two weeks yesterday. Boston had won 15 games in a row entering Thursday, but a 5-1 defeat to the Orioles reset their counter.
Patrick Sandoval takes the mound in Boston as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery.
The former Angels frontline starter is making his third start since 2024, but looks back to form. His 19% K-BB would be a career-high if it sustains, and his velocity is at career-average rates.
Sandoval will be taking on a Blue Jays offense that is struggling against LHP. They rank dead-last against lefties this season (80 wRC+) and are worse on the road (84 wRC+) than at home (95 wRC+).
Toronto's budding star, Trey Yesavage, will be pitching for them tonight. Yesavage is having a solid season (3.78 ERA), yet there is more to be desired. His 11% K-BB is concerning. Walks continue to hinder Yesavage's upside, especially in the past several weeks.
Yesavage since May 30: 4.78 ERA, 4.34 xERA, 5.29 xFIP, 5.8% K-BB
While Yesavage had done well in limiting hard contact early in the season, this recent stretch, mixed with his poor K-BB, is concerning. He will be facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 11th in the past 30 days.
Also, the Blue Jays have pitched their best RPs, Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland, in back-to-back days. They both could pitch tonight, but Toronto may prefer to give them a day off if the game is beyond a run or tied.
Picks: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-125)
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Pick
MacKenzie Gore (4.80 ERA) vs. Bryce Miller (2.27 ERA) looks very lopsided on paper.
However, Gore has the advantage today. Seattle is the fifth-worst offense against LHP this season (87 wRC+), and they have struggled offensively overall over the past month (88 wRC+). Also, Gore has the benefit of playing at home.
- Gore at home: 3.44 ERA, 22.6% K-BB, 3.33 xFIP
- Gore on road: 6.02 ERA, 12.4% K-BB, 4.50 xFIP
Bryce Miller is very similar in this instance. He also pitches much better at home.
- Miller at home: 0.95 ERA, 30.4% K-BB, 2.76 xFIP
- Miller on road: 3.34 ERA, 21.6% K-BB, 3.40 xFIP
Unfortunately, Miller will be on the road today, and he is coming off two odd starts. He has allowed 16 hits, five walks, and six ER against the Giants and Twins, while striking out just nine batters. There is not enough of a sample to call this a trend, but it is still worth noting.
Although the Rangers' offense is better against LHP (114 wRC+) than RHP (100 wRC+), they are hitting very well in the past 30 days (116 wRC+).
Picks: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-110)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, July 24
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+110)
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-125)
- Texas Rangers Moneyline (-110)
