Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, October 27.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview World Series Game 3. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, October 27
Series Futures and Props
Before getting into my projections and bets for Monday's World Series Game 2, I wanted to provide my updated series projection and analyze potential futures bets or props for the 2025 World Series.
The Dodgers closed as low as -215 (68.25% implied) to win the World Series before Game 1, and I recommended their series price as a potential value bet, compared to my projected line of -234.
The series price reopened as a pick'em line (-110 either side) after the Blue Jays' Game 1 win, aligning with my updated projection (Dodgers -111 down 1-0). Still, the market pushed the Dodgers closer to -130 (56.5% implied) before evening the series.
You can still find the Dodgers as low as -210 (67.7% implied) to win the World Series at ESPNBet before Game 3, which is a slight but actionable edge compared to my updated number (-222). If you don't already have Dodgers futures, consider betting their series price, up to -212 at a 1% edge compared to my projection.
Alternatively, or in addition, you can bet the Dodgers to win in exactly five games, or 4-1 (+310 at FanDuel), down to +304, which also represents a 1% edge compared to my projection (+288). It's worth noting that Dodgers -2.5 Games (which expresses the same outcome) is listed at +270 at the same book, while Dodgers 4-1 is either +270 or +275 at other books.
You can also find small edges on the Under 5.5 Games (projected +227, listed +240 at ESPNBet and Caesars) or on the series lasting exactly five games (+235 at FanDuel), both of which express the same outcome. I'd take either wager down to +238.
Still, I'd prefer to bet the Dodgers 4-1 (+310) — and eliminate Toronto's chances of winning the next three games consecutively — to maximize your potential payout.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 3 Pick
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 -120o / 100u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 -120o / 100u | -200 |
Max Scherzer vs. Kevin Gausman
The Blue Jays opted for Max Scherzer over Shane Bieber (4.58 xERA, 3.35 xFIP, 4.29 botEA, 101 Pitching+) in Game 3, as the future Hall of Famer makes his 32nd career postseason start.
The 41-year-old missed the first half of the 2025 campaign with a thumb injury, and struggled in the second half (5.37 ERA, 4.70 xFIP), while posting the highest home run rate (2.01 HR/9) and the worst underlying indicators since the first few seasons of his 18-year career (16.5% K-BB% vs. 22.6% career; 96 Stuff+, down from 100 in 2024, and 107 career).
Moreover, Scherzer has continued to show a fairly significant lefty/righty split, which has plagued him throughout his career (2.77 xFIP, 28.9% K-BB% vs. righties; 3.94 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB% vs lefties).
Tyler Glasnow did pitch far better at home (3.01 xFIP, 25.1% K-BB%) than on the road (5.23 xFIP, 2.4% K-BB%) this season, and generally has throughout his career too (2.98 xFIP, 23.7% K-BB% at home; 3.58, 19.1% on the road). But, unlike Scherzer, he is about as equally effective against both righties and lefties.
Still, Glasnow's indicators were down a bit this season (K-BB% down from 25.5% and 21.5% career to 17.2%; Stuff+ down from 108 in 2024 and 109 career to 98; botERA up from 3.46 in 2024 and 3.52 career to 4.39) and he won't enjoy the same shadows he benefitted from in twilight starts (3 p.m. local) at home against the Brewers and Phillies.
Scherzer relies on a four-pitch mix: four-seam fastball (48%), slider (24%), changeup (14%), and curveball (12%). The Dodgers ranked third, sixth, second, and 16th against those pitch types, per pitch. Still, while the Dodgers struggled more with curveballs relative to other pitch types, it was easily Scherzer's worst offering (.332 xBA, .579 xSLG) in 2025.
Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman hammer fastball/changeup pitchers, but could struggle with Scherzer's breakers. However, this is an ideal matchup for Shohei Ohtani.
Glasnow also relies on a four-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball (35%), slider (22%), curveball (22%), and sinker (21%). Toronto ranked between 5th and 7th against all four pitch types this season, and George Springer is the only Blue Jay who finished above-average against each of those offerings in 2025.
The Blue Jays seem intent on re-inserting Bo Bichette (-12 DRS, -13 OAA) back into their lineup for Game 3, after missing Game 2. A healthy Bichette ranked among the worst defensive shortstops in MLB, and if he's less than 100%, it could be a significant drag on his team's defense, even while playing second base.
The Blue Jays had a defensive advantage over both the Mariners and Yankees, but the Dodgers are a comparably strong defensive club (third in Defensive Runs Saved, 10th in outs Above Average; Toronto fourth and ninth, respectively) and Toronto's defense matters less against a team that can hit the ball out of the park, whereas the Dodgers' defense matters more against an offense merely trying to avoid strikeouts and put the ball in play.
Toronto made the most contact of any team in baseball, with the lowest strikeout rate on the season, and the Jays ranked second after the trade deadline and fifth in September.
Still, the Dodgers' contact improved as the season went along, ranking 19th on the year, eighth after the trade deadline, and sixth in September. Compare that to the Mariners (24th on the year, 21st post-deadline, 14th in September) and the Yankees (25th on the year, 25th post-deadline, 26th in September). You can see that it's going to be much more difficult for the Blue Jays pitchers to get strikeouts with runners in scoring position than it has been so far in the postseason.
Moreover, while the gap in contact rate narrowed between these teams as the season wore on, the Dodgers' offense continues to offer a better process and more power than Toronto's.
Toronto spoils a ton of pitches, many of which are outside the strike zone — they posted the fifth-highest chase rate this season, whereas the Dodgers posted the third-lowest and rate higher in SEAGER (5th vs. 8th). Moreover, the Dodgers offer advantages in barrel rate (4th vs. 13th), average exit velocity (4th vs. 16th), ISO (2nd vs. 12th), and pulled flyball rate (5th vs. 18th).
Based upon his outs, hits and walks props, Glasnow is expected to face around 23.5 hitters, and would strikeout 6.8 batters if you used his 2025 strikeout rate or K%, or 4.1 batters if you used Toronto's 2025 K% vs. righties, giving you an average projection of 5.45; pass on his under, particularly with Dave Roberts' letting his starters go as long as they can.
Scherzer is expected to face 18.5 hitters (twice through the Dodgers order) and would project for 4.45 strikeouts at his 2025 K%, or 4.01 at the Dodgers' second-half K%. Our action labs projection puts him at 3.7, and I would bet Under 4.5 small to -170, but would be cautious about allocation given the Blue Jays' eight-man bullpen.
Rather than loading up on the strikeout prop, I'll also play Scherzer Over 1.5 Walks (+127) to +110, compared to my projection of 1.52. He walked four and was in another pair of 3-1 counts against a less patient Mariners offense, at the best strikeout venue in MLB (T-Mobile is +17% for Strikeouts, -3% for Walks the past three seasons; Dodger Stadium is neutral and +1% respectively).
The Blue Jays left Yariel Rodriguez off their World Series roster and are carrying just eight relievers and 12 total pitchers after adding Bichette. As a result, I'd expect Scherzer to potentially stay in this game even if he's getting hit.
The Dodgers had to leave Alex Vesia (3.08 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, 24.5% K-BB%) off their World Series roster due to a personal matter, replacing him with Edgardo Henriquez. They also swapped Ben Casparius for Will Klein.
These clubs had the two worst bullpens on paper coming into the postseason, as the Dodgers finished 19th in xFIP and ninth in K-BB% after the trade deadline, whereas the Blue Jays ranked 15th and 26th, respectively.
Both teams have high-potential arms. The Dodgers ranked second (109 Stuff+) and the Blue Jays 11th (104) by Stuff+ over that same span. But both units still struggle with command, ranking 25th and 29th in Location+, and 8th and 23rd by botERA during that stretch.
You cannot judge all of these pitchers by their full regular-season stats, either. Roki Sasaki (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K) has been a revelation for the Dodgers since moving to the bullpen — he only made two MLB appearances (2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K) as a reliever in September. Conversely, Brendon Little fell off in the second half (3.93 xFIP, 8.3% K-BB%) after a huge first half (3.07 xFIP, 19.8% K-BB%) for the Blue Jays.
I projected the Dodgers as -171 favorites for Game 3, and I set the total at 8.8 runs. As a result, I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline, but I would bet Over 8 to 8.5 (-106).
Scherzer has implosion potential, and not only is Toronto's contact-oriented offense a bad matchup for Glasnow, who relies on swing-and-miss in the strike zone, but I think his playoff form was flattered by those unique start times and rare late-afternoon shadows at Dodger Stadium.
Crew chief and plate umpire Mark Wegner should also provide an offensive boost; Wegner has been mindlessly profitable for Over bettors (52% win, +0.7% ROI since 2005) and carries a career K-BB% 2.4% below the current MLB average.
Pick: Over 8 (bet to 8.5 -106)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, October 27
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Sides and Totals
- Blue Jays / Dodgers Over 8 (-109, 1u) at BallyBet; bet to 8.5 (-106)
Game 2 Player Props
- George Springer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +110
- Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs (+418, 0.05u) at DraftKings; bet to +400
- Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -170
- Max Scherzer Over 1.5 Walks (+128, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +110
