Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, October 28.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview World Series Game 4. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, October 28
Series Futures and Props
Before getting into my projections and bets for Tuesday's World Series Game 4, I want to provide my updated series projection and analyze potential futures bets or props for the 2025 World Series.
The Dodgers re-opened as low as -475 (82.6% implied) to win the World Series following a marathon win in Game 3.
As a result, I don't project an edge on their series line at current odds.
However, I do project a slight edge compared to either their series spread (-1.5 games, -195 at DraftKings) or their odds to win in exactly five games (+165 at FanDuel), which is the same bet but a better price than their odds to win 4-1 (+158 at the same book).
I would lay their -1.5 games spread at -195, and play either the exact five games prop, the Dodgers 4-1 correct score prop, or the -2.5 games spread (each of which represents the same outcome) at +142 or better.
If you assume that the Dodgers closed at -200 for Game 4, they would have to be around -135 in Game 5 to justify a current line north of +160, but they will be closer to -200 again than -135.
And if you already have futures on the Dodgers — including the pre-series -1.5 games ticket — there is no need to double down in that market. I would merely add their odds to win in five games.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 4 Pick
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
Shane Bieber vs. Shohei Ohtani
Both teams will look for length from their Game 4 starters, following Monday's 18-inning affair.
Shohei Ohtani hasn't pitched in 11 days — since his dominant 10-strikeout, three-homer performance to close out the NLDS against the Brewers — while Shane Bieber has gotten a bit roughed up in two of his three postseason outings.
Neither of their career splits is as drastic as their 2025 numbers suggest. Both Ohtani (career 3.20 xFIP vs. righties, 3.23 vs. lefties) and Bieber (3.20 vs. righties, 3.03 vs. lefties) have handled righties and lefties about equally well.
Bieber has comparable home/road splits, too, but Ohtani has always been a better pitcher in home games (2.95 vs. 3.55 xFIP; 24.7% vs. 20.6% K-BB%).
In a limited 47-inning sample after returning from injury, Shohei Ohtani posted the best underlying metrics among the Dodgers' starting pitchers.
He has a seven-pitch mix (four-seam, sweeper, slider, curveball, sinker, cutter, splitter) with each grading out at 110+ Stuff+. He can tweak his mix based on both his feel and the opposing lineup that day, making Ohtani the pitcher extremely difficult to prepare for.
Moreover, he may face a weakened Blue Jays lineup that saw George Springer leave Game 3 with an oblique issue. I project Bo Bichette to take over DH duties on Tuesday, which helps Toronto defensively.
Bieber has a five-pitch mix (four-seam, slider, knucklecurve, changeup, cutter), but only the changeup (103 Stuff+) grades out as an above-average pitch.
Based upon their 2025 arsenal metrics, Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, and a struggling Andy Pages seem best equipped to handle Bieber.
Both bullpens emptied in Game 3, but the Dodgers' arms are a bit better-rested heading into Game 4.
The Dodgers' relievers had extensive rest before Monday, thanks to their NLCS sweep and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's complete-game victories in both the NLCS and World Series Game 2.
While Will Klein (72 pitches), Edgardo Henriquez (30 pitches), Roki Sasaki (29 pitches), and Justin Wrobleski (28 pitches) each worked multi-inning stints, I'd expect everyone aside from Klein to be available again on Tuesday.
The Blue Jays only have eight bullpen arms, compared to nine for the Dodgers, and used Eric Lauer for 68 pitches, Braydon Fisher for the third time in the series, and Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland, and Mason Fluarty each for their second appearances of the series.
I project the Dodgers as -196 favorites and set the total at 8.49 runs. As a result, I don't see value on either the full-game side or the total for Game 4.
However, I do project a slight edge on the Dodgers to win the first half or first five innings of the game, up to -210 (listed -200, projected -219).
Moreover, while I think Ohtani should be effective early — and Bieber could improve with added rest after his last start — I would consider a live Over here as the game turns to the bullpens. One or both of these teams could put up a crooked number against a fatigued relief pitcher in the late innings.
Pick: Dodgers First Five Innings Moneyline (bet to -210)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, October 28
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Sides and Totals
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 Moneyline (-200, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -210
Game 4 Player Props
- Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425, 0.05u) at ESPNBet; bet to +400
- Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 Home Runs (-220, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -250
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+475, 0.05u) at ESPNBet; bet to +400
Series Props and Futures
- Exact Games: Five (+162, 0.33u) at FanDuel; bet to +142
