Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson Odds
| Almabayev Odds | -258 |
| Johnson Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-260/+195) |
| Location | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Baku odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson prediction for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 27 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Fight Night 280's main card features an interesting stylistic clash at men's flyweight between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson. Coming off a crazy comeback win over Alex Perez last year, Almabayev will be looking to make it three wins in a row since his main event loss to Manel Kape.
Almabayev was initially scheduled to return to the octagon earlier this year, but a hand injury forced the fighter from Kazakhstan to withdraw from his lone scheduled bout of 2026. Johnson, on the other hand, is keeping his usual busy schedule as he returns after a close and contentious split-decision win over Bruno Silva earlier this year.
Here's my Almabayev vs. Johnson pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Almabayev | Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-3 | 19-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:58 | 12:42 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/25/1994 | 1/10/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.31 | 4.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.99 | 4.02 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.46 | 0.51 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 16% |
| TD Def | 44% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.3 |
From a stylistic perspective, both Johnson and Almabayev share similar fighting struggles and spirits alike, but in two completely different ways. Almabayev, who is the more wrestling-heavy fighter of the two, tends to rely on heavy offensive output and optics to get the lion's share of his wins at the higher level.
Although Almabayev carries some sneakily accurate spinning kicks and uppercuts in his tool bag, the 32-year-old Kazakh clearly feels at his safest and strongest when wrestling.
Whether Almabayev chaining to and from single-legs in the open or looking to hit his inside trips from the clinch, he is an effective fighter when he can start to roll downhill. Almabayez is also an excellent back-taker and is quick to jump on opportunistic chokes of all kinds.
Thankfully for Johnson, the American has had plenty of experience with fighters who want to wrestle him.
The more striking-heavy fighter of the two, Johnson is a talented athlete who took to fighting like a fish to water. From preternatural striking flows to dynamic moments of offense, "Inner G" has proven that he has the chops to both compete and beat the best in the division.
Johnson, who has always been a solid scrambler, has also made steady improvements to his defensive wrestling since his initial struggles in the promotion. That said, Johnson hasn't exactly been the most consistent performer in the cage and will need to be at his very best if he means to get past Almabayev.
Almabayev vs. Johnson Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Kazakh fighter, listing Almabayev -300 and Johnson +240 as of this writing. Although I have no arguments with opening Almabayev as the favorite at first glance, I feel like this spread is a bit disrespectful to Johnson's chances.
Don't get me wrong: I'm someone who notoriously refers to Johnson as "the most inconsistent fighter to bet on in MMA" when considering all the weird and ill-timed results throughout his career. You could genuinely argue that Johnson could be 3-11 in the UFC if you take away two wild comeback wins and three incredibly kind decisions from him.
However, Almabayez, like Johnson, also has a harder time rolling downhill than you'd initially suspect when looking at his skills from afar.
Although Almabayev looks the part on paper, the 13-year pro still shows a severe lack of striking setups for his shots that he's almost paid for fatally in both victory and defeat, ending up out of position – as well as nearly choked out – in his last four fights.
Add in the fact that Almabayev also still largely employs a back-foot approach (which is both terrible for his takedown setups and porous striking defense alike), and I can't help but ride with the bigger Johnson and his arguably improved and underrated takedown defense.
Since I don't have access to any of Johnson's points handicap props, I'm plugging my nose and taking a flier on the Americans' money line (which I think is fine for a small stab at +200 or better). That said, if you have access to Johnson's 3.5 points prop at plus money or his 5.5 points prop at -150 or better, then I suggest considering those looks as an appropriate middle ground for potential hedges or bonuses alike if you ended up on Almabayez's round 3/decision prop or SGP offerings with the Over involved.
Dan's Pick: Charles Johnson +240 (Caesars)
