Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III Odds
| Riley Odds | -278 |
| Kamaka Odds | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-210/+160) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
he UFC 329 prelims feature a featherweight showdown between Kai Kamaka and Luke Riley.Kamaka, who is the more tenured fighter of the two, was recently signed back with the promotion and is coming off a win over Dakato Hope earlier this year.
Riley, on the other hand, is a prospect that many, including myself, have had high hopes for. Both fighters come from very respected gyms, so expect each man to be prepared to go to war for fifteen minutes if necessary.
Here's my Riley vs. Kamaka pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Riley | Kamaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-0 | 18-7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:15 | 13:54 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/30/1999 | 1/05/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.56 | 5.40 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.32 | 5.67 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 1.51 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 53% |
| TD Def | 37% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.2 |
From a style perspective, this is a bout between a well-rounded workman and a hard-punching prospect that looks like he has a decent ceiling.
Kamaka, who is the workman in this equation, is a very capable fighter in all phases. A true multi-sport athlete who comes from a quiet wrestling base, Kamaka mixes up his weapons like a Hawaiian poor man's Georges St. Pierre.
Training under the tutelage of Eric Nicksick and company at Xtreme Couture MMA, Kamaka has rounded out everything from striking setups to his footwork and cage control. And when Kamaka is feeling in stride, the 31-year-old strikes well in combination, flowing seamlessly from punching to clinching ranges.
Although I'd love to see Kamaka get back to mixing in his wrestling more, I suspect that he could be encouraged to opposite a threat like Riley.
One of my prospects to watch back in 2025, Riley has continued to prove me and many right when it comes to making it to the UFC.
A talented and natural puncher, Riley is a hard-hitting Englishman who is comfortable striking in most ranges. And despite his sometimes slow starts, Riley does appear to have some solid eyes in exchanges, demonstrating the ability to come up with answers that help him connect with his opponent's chins.
Riley has a good left hook, in particular, but his right hand will probably be worth watching out for in this fight. Riley has also given up his fair share of takedowns on the regional scene, but the 27-year-old doesn't appear to be lost on the ground given the solid submission grappling gym he hails from.
Regardless of the result, I'm hoping to see more of Riley's ground game to get a better idea of both his potential improvements and ceiling.
Riley vs. Kamaka Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the English fighter, listing Riley -235 and Kamaka +186 as of this writing.
Considering the hype on Riley and the fact that he's Paddy Pimblett's training partner, I'm not shocked – nor do I necessarily disagree – with Riley being installed as the favorite.
However, even when setting my Hawaiian and Xtreme Couture biases aside, I genuinely feel this line is a bit too inflated to get involved with the odds-on fave. Aside from the fact that Riley is still developing his processes both on the feet and floor, the Englishman has a propensity to give away early minutes and rounds in his fights.
Now, Kamaka is not the type of fighter who is known to punish slow starts with knockouts, but "The Fighting Hawaiian" is the more experienced product who, in victory or split-decision defeat, consistently gives the judges a decent amount to score in all rounds and phases of the fight.
And though I see Riley having the bigger moments on paper, the five-year pro has shown that he's not beyond being sat down or clipped hard himself. Add in the fact that Kamaka's only losses in the last half-decade come by way of close decisions, and I can't help but take a flier on the underdog to win at least one round opposite Riley.
For that reason, I suspect that Kamaka's points handicap prop is a healthy middle ground for a fight that screams dog or pass. That bet would cash if Kamaka wins outright, or is able to take at least one round on each judges' scorecard in a decision loss.
My colleague Billy Ward was of a similar mind when discussing this fight on the latest Action Network UFC Betting Preview:
Dan's Pick: Kai Kamaka +3.5 -110 (DraftKings)
