Check out the Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira prediction for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 27 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Baku’s main card features matchmaking that should provide quite the level of entertainment, with one of the fights I am most excited about being a middleweight clash between the surging Ikram Aliskerov and Bruno Ferreira. Oddsmakers have given this fight implied odds of 80% to end inside the distance and with good reason. Let’s break down this matchup and find an angle that provides value.
Here's my Aliskerov vs. Ferreira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Alikserov
Ferreira
Record
17-2
15-3
Avg. Fight Time
4:42
5:59
Height
6'0"
5'10"
Weight (pounds)
185 lbs.
185 lbs.
Reach (inches)
76"
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Date of birth
12/07/1992
11/04/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min
6.86
3.77
SS Accuracy
64%
50%
SS Absorbed Per Min
5.47
3.91
SS Defense
41%
51%
Take Down Avg
3.20
1.25
TD Acc
60%
23%
TD Def
100%
61%
Submission Avg
0.5
0.8
Aliskerov and Ferreira have 16 combined fights under the UFC banner, with only one fight each going to a decision. In fact, neither fighter has ever lost a fight by decision in the UFC.
Ferreira is not the type of fighter who often involves the judges. He is a “kill-or-be-killed” fighter by nature. Both his mentality and skillset lend itself to seeing somebody involved in his fights to have a short night.
Ferreira’s one-punch power can undoubtedly cause problems for Aliskerov on Saturday, but it will be the Russian who will have the clear technical edge. Aliskerov fights with a tighter guard defensively and throws much straighter shots than Ferreira, often fighting behind an improved jab that can jolt his opponents if timed correctly.
Aliskerov not only will have the technical advantage while the fight remains standing, but his four-inch reach advantage will assist him in winning striking exchanges with volume and output.. Aliskerov has landed 6.8 significant strikes per minute throughout his UFC tenure, while Ferreira has suffered a negative striking differential while landing just 3.7 significant strikes per minute.
The Aliskerov’s volume dominance is critical to how this fight plays out, because there is reason to believe Ferreira could be a bit more hesitant than usual heading into this fight. Less than four months’ time has passed since Ferreira was knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues, which is a pretty quick turnaround for a fighter with previous durability concerns.
Aliskerov will dictate the pace of this bout, and he will decide where it takes place. Ferreira has no choice in the matter as Aliskerov is incredibly difficult to take down. Aliskerov’s Sambo background can at least keep Ferreira guessing in terms of when a potential takedown attempt might be coming in his direction. Aliskerov used his grappling skills in a showcase of his well-rounded game in his victory over Jun Yong Park last October.
I am not discounting Ferreira’s opportunistic submission skills, but that result would surprise me, as would a decision victory for Ferreira. Oddsmakers agree, as the longest odds under the method of victory category belong to that specific result. Ferreira’s stamina is not one of his strengths, so if the fight gets extended, the expectation will be that Aliskerov will have the cardio edge late.
Aliskerov vs. Ferreira Pick, Prediction
Aliskerov does have two losses in his MMA career, both coming by way of knockout. Granted, those two losses came at the hands of two world champions in Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev. Ferreira’s one-punch power is enough for me to avoid playing the Aliskerov moneyline at face value in any manner, but I want to factor it into the angle I will be attacking here.
I will be playing this fight to end by KO/TKO in round 1 for a half-unit at +220 – listed under ‘alt method & round combo’ on FanDuel. If Ferreira isn’t cautious in his quick return to the octagon following a knockout loss, this will look like a tremendous value, as either man can land the final blow from the opening bell.
My main position in this fight will be on an SGP, which is quite easy to concoct across various books. Again, leaning into the forecast that this fight remains standing and the unlikely outcome of a submission, combining this bout to end by KO/TKO and ending within the first ten minutes reduces the juice on a total otherwise set at 1.5 rounds. This position is a modest -107 price tag on FanDuel under the same game parlay tab.
John's Pick: Fight to end by KO/TKO + fight does not start Round 3 -107 (FanDuel) | 0.5 unit Fight to end by KO/TKO in round 1 +220 (FanDuel)
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About the Author
John Lanfranca is a contributor at Action Network who specializes in NFL betting, with a focus on sides, totals, and player props. He has been betting since 2006 John has been involved with football since a young age and currently coaches at the high school level. He has cashed multiple five-figure entries in NFL DFS, which coincided with him entering the industry with Fantasysharks, where he contributed as a podcaster while also writing daily articles on betting, DFS, and the NFL Draft. John has shown a consistent ability to win when betting the NFL against the spread, regularly finishing seasons with a winning percentage in the 55-60% range
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