Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Baku (Saturday June 27)

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres Odds

Check out the Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres prediction for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 27, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Baku, Azerbaijan, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the lightweight division between No. 13 contender Manuel "El Loco" Torres and fan favorite Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev.

Fiziev was considered one of the top lightweight contenders as recently as 2023, but has dropped four of his past five fights, including two of his past three, since sustaining a knee injury against Mateusz Gamrot. Fiziev has earned seven performance bonuses in 11 UFC bouts, including three wins for Fight of the Night.

Torres enters with a 6-1 promotional record, on a two-fight winning streak since his knockout loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, and he has earned a performance bonus in each of his UFC wins since earning a contract on Contender Series.

All but one of Torres' professional fights have ended in the first round, with an average fight time of 2:32. If you remove Torres' split decision win from a one-night Grand Prix in 2018, his average fight time is just 1:50.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Baku Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these lightweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 2:45 p.m. ET (11:45 a.m. PT) on Sunday evening.

Here's my Fiziev vs. Torres pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Manuel Torres is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) than Rafael Fiziev, and he's the better fighter statistically; still, he's accumulated those stats in quick finishes and has yet to prove that he can sustain his style across a 15-minute fight, let alone a scheduled 25-minute bout that could hit the championship rounds.

Typically, I try to bet against fighters making their five-round debut, especially when they have not proven they can maintain their style over three rounds, and/or when they are facing an opponent who has proven themselves over five rounds.

I've never thought that Fiziev has the best gas tank himself, but he has seen championship rounds (knocked out Rafael dos Anjos in Round 5), and this is his third main-event booking, so he has trained for 25-minute contests.

Fiziev, a veteran of more than 50 combined professional Muay Thai and kickboxing matches, has far more combat sports experience than Torres, who has only recorded 48 minutes of professional MMA.

The cardio advantage and superior fight IQ may not matter for Fiziev, though; Torres has walked through all but one of his UFC opponents and all but three of his professional opponents. He's an aggressive starter with big power, and a nasty guillotine and rear-naked choke, and Fiziev is coming off of his second UFC knockout loss (against Mauricio Ruffy in February) on a four-month turnaround, while defending strikes at just 49% in the UFC.

Between the injuries and damage he has sustained throughout a long combat sports career, Fiziev's durability seems to be in decline. He has always relied on elite athleticism and explosiveness to evade his opponents' strikes, but as he has aged and slowed down, he's become much more hittable.

Still, Torres is reckless with his aggression, which has led to a trio of finish losses (including a pair of regional submissions). If he's not measured with his pressure, he may end up on the wrong end of a spinning attack from one of the most dynamic strikers in the sport.

I prefer Fiziev in an extended fight; he has shown both versatility and the ability to implement a game plan against opponents and has sustained success both at striking distance and, more recently, taking opponents down to keep them off-balance (landed four takedowns in his win over Bahamondes).

In fact, Fiziev has shot seven takedowns in about 39 minutes of fight time (nearly one takedown attempt per round) since returning from his knee injury; he's become a lot more intentional about mixing in level changes, which can ultimately create openings for his strikes to land. I favor his minute-winning in any extended contest, but suspect you may be able to find a better price on his live moneyline after Round 1.

There are too many unknowns on the Torres side to bet against him pre-fight; his wins have been quick and violent, but we don't know if he can fight a measured game plan in a more technical contest, and there's a chance that his gastank or durability fails at him some point if it extends, anyway.

I think there's a good chance that Torres hurts Fiziev in the first round — as he typically does with his opponents — and I'd want to see how Fiziev reacts to and recovers from that damage before placing a bet on his moneyline (and likely at better odds by that point); wait five minutes to back Ataman.

Still, Torres wouldn't be the first fighter to change stylistically after preparing for their first career main event; it's possible (though I would say unlikely) that he starts slower than usual in an effort to preserve his cardio for the championship rounds. Some fighters pace themselves differently when staring down a five-round fight, as opposed to three.

Fiziev vs. Torres Pick, Prediction

I projected Rafael Fiziev as a slight favorite (-111, or 52.5% implied) in this fight, and I would consider taking him pre-fight at any plus-money price; however, as mentioned above, I would look to add Fiziev live after Round 1; Torres has not won a fight or finished an opponent beyond the 4:21 mark of Round 1.

I do show a small edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected +312, listed +350), compared to a five-round divisional average of 32% (+212 implied) in five-round fights, but considering Torres' cardio questions, I'm inclined to bet Over 1.5 Rounds (-130) to around -150, and essentially bank on Fiziev surviving early, rather than Torres surviving late.

Among the winning method props, only Torres by decision (projected +972, listed +1400) popped as a potential value bet; however, for the same reasons as the distance prop, I would rather play an Over 1.5; we're averaging in a lot of historical data to assume what Torres' cardio should look like in a five round fight, when its very rare for a fighter to have a UFC main event with such minimal information about their ability to complete even a three-rounder.

Sean's Picks: Over 1.5 Rounds -130 (Circa) | Rafael Fiziev Live after Round 1

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