Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira Odds
| Magomedov Odds | -410 |
| Pereira Odds | +320 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-270/+200) |
| Location | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Baku odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira prediction for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 27 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC Baku co-main event features a pair of fan-favorite middleweights in Shara "Bullet" Magomedov and Michel Pereira. With his inability to get cleared by US athletic commissions due to only having one eye, Magomedov's appearances in overseas shows taking place in countries with less stringent regulations have become a regular part of the UFC schedule, with the promotion typically trying to put him in a good position to shine.
That seems to be the case here, as Pereira is 1-3 with a split decision win in his last four fights. However, "Demolidor" is also a unique challenge for anyone, and not so long ago won three straight fights in a combined 3:01. Will he be able to get his shine back against a difficult opponent, or is this the last stop before Magomedov gets a ranked opponent?
Here's my Magomedov vs. Pereira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Magomedov | Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-1 | 32-14 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:43 | 10:43 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 05/16/1994 | 10/06/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.93 | 4.46 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 1.21 |
| TD Acc | 0 | 56% |
| TD Def | 71% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.7 |
While both men in this bout are primarily strikers — Magomedov exclusively and Pereira preferentially — their styles could not be more different.
Magomedov is a quick, technical kickboxer with an almost point-fighting style that he punctuates with the occasional spinning or leaping attack. Pereira is a brawler willing to take a shot to give one, who swings for the fences with every shot, consequences be damned.
That makes this a potential binary fight from a time standpoint, with Pereira likelier to win early and Magomedov better suited to take over late. Both of Magomedov's UFC stoppage victories have been beyond the halfway point of the second round, and occurred after 65 or more significant strikes. Outside of the occasional big swing here and there, he's largely looking to touch his opponent as often as possible, and if a finish comes, so be it.
Of course, Pereira's high-risk style (which includes the occasional tumbling routine) may provide more early finish opportunities. The counterargument is that Magomedov probably should be more cautious here, not less, given the danger coming back at him while the Brazilian is fresh.
To be clear, I would absolutely handicap Magomedov as a considerable favorite in a pure striking match, even if I knew it was going to end early. He's the far better, and faster, technical striker, holding every edge in that department other than power (and depth perception).
That dynamic sets up the first betting angle I have on this fight, but this isn't a kickboxing match.
Pereira is one of the more underrated grapplers in the sport, in my opinion, with a high takedown success rate of 56% and tremendous finishing ability on the ground. His willingness to cartwheel and backflip over opponents' guards makes him a nightmare for less adept grapplers, like Magomedov, and his physical strength gives him a tremendous squeeze on his chokes.
While breaking down some tape for this one, I also noticed that he perfectly timed a takedown on Zach Reese when the Texan attempted a spinning strike. There's a chance that was just dumb luck, but if it's something they've game planned for in the past, Magomedov should provide some opportunities for Pereira to score some easy takedowns.
It's obviously much easier to take down an opponent who exposes their back to you or leaves their feet, which Magomedov frequently does. Alternatively, if the favorite is worried about takedowns that might limit his offensive arsenal, which would also help Pereira.
Even if he's able to get the fight to the ground, I still believe Pereira's best chances are early. Continuously grappling is even more taxing than striking, and the most probable result is Pereira finishes him on the ground early, or abandons the strategy if he doesn't.
Magomedov vs. Pereira Pick, Prediction
Due to the potential for grappling, I believe Pereira is undervalued on the moneyline here. However, rather than take the +320 odds on him to win, I'm getting a bit greedy.
Pereira to win in either of the first two rounds is +750 on FanDuel, a much better price that encapsulates what I believe to be his likeliest winning condition. From there, if he has some early success but can't get Magomedov out of the fight, I'll be looking to buy back in on Magomedov's live line, which hopefully is somewhere closer to even money.
The other angle I like is Pereira's takedowns. The over 0.5 is set at -150, which I'd be happy to bet ordinarily. However, if Pereira gets exactly one takedown, it probably means he finished Magomedov on the ground, which would cash our juicier bet.
Instead, I'm taking Pereira to land 2+ takedowns at +165. Magomedov has been taken down multiple times in half of his UFC fights, and two of the three men to do so were former kickboxers, while the third averages 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career. Pereira is easily the best grappler he's faced, so getting significant plus-money there feels like a steal.
Billy's Picks: Pereira in Rounds 1 or 2 +750 (FanDuel) | Pereira 2+ Takedowns +165 (DraftKings) | Magomedov Live After R1
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