Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez Odds
| Garbrandt Odds | +330 |
| Yanez Odds | -425 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-200/+154) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
At UFC 329, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt will attempt to climb back up the rankings by agreeing to once again face an opponent presenting a clear step-up in competition. Adrian Yanez is just 1-3-1 in his last five octagon appearances, yet he finds himself as a substantial favorite on Saturday. Let’s dive in and see if his price tag is justified.
Here's my Garbrandt vs. Yanez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Garbrandt | Yanez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-7 | 17-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:20 | 7:33 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/07/1991 | 11/29/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.79 | 5.96 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.66 | 5.24 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 22% | 0% |
| TD Def | 81% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Each of these fighters’ most recent bouts gives us a glimpse into the current standing of their respective careers. Yanez made a late comeback to earn a draw against a game Ricky Simon. Simon landed two of five takedown attempts and controlled Yanez for two minutes in total throughout the first two rounds – it was enough to give him the nod in both frames before Yanez turned up the heat in round three.
In total, Yanez outstruck Simon by a count of 71 to 44 in significant strikes, using his fluid boxing skills to navigate the pocket, landing at a much higher rate than his opponent. Yanez has the ability to control distance and slip punches, which will be a highly useful tool against a striker with the hand speed of Garbrandt.
The speed of Garbrandt has served him well throughout his career, but it may be one of the only attributes he possesses that hasn’t seen a pronounced decline. Cody “No Love” used to style on opponents with an aggressive style that translated into some remarkable performances. However, that confident fighter is long gone.
Garbrandt’s decision victory over Xiao Long was hardly an impressive performance. Long was penalized twice over that 15 minute bout, and it cost him on the judges’ scorecards. The Road to UFC fighter outstruck Garbrandt 59 to 28, in total, landing more significant strikes in every round and doubling the former champion in attempted strikes. In fact, Garbrandt hasn’t landed more than 28 significant strikes in a fight since May of 2021.
The glaring weakness in Garbrandt’s game at this stage of his career has everything to do with his durability. He cannot afford to overextend himself and create an opening for his opponent. To make matters worse, he is well aware of this unfortunate flaw. His lack of volume will haunt him for the rest of his run in the UFC, as his opponents are simply too comfortable. Stylistically, this is a nightmare when facing a striker the caliber of Yanez.
Yanez may not have been racking up wins over the course of the last few years, but he has taken on stiff competition and held his own. His split decision against an unbeaten Daniel Marcos in 2024 was especially noteworthy because Yanez unleashed 182 significant strikes in that bout, displaying a willingness to attempt to really turn up the volume.
Contrast that to Garbrandt, who has just three victories spanning 2017 through 2025 before the lucky win over Long. Those three wins came against Brian Kelleher, Trevin Jones, and Rafael Assuncao. Assuncao went 1-2 after losing to Garbrandt before being released by the UFC in 2023, Kelleher went 0-1 before being released by the UFC in 2024, and Jones was let go from the organization following his loss to Garbrandt in 2023.
Both men have been knocked out on multiple occasions, but it is clear Yanez still has more trust in his chin, and for good reason. Garbrandt has no choice but to change levels in an attempt to drag Yanez to the mat. I just don’t see it happening as his career 22% takedown accuracy won’t be able to crack Yanez’s 75% takedown defense. Even if Garbrandt is successful, I expect Yanez to work back to his feet quickly and regain control of the fight.
Garbrandt vs. Yanez Pick, Prediction
I have very little confidence in Garbrandt’s plan of attack, and even if he executes his gameplan perfectly, it may only take one shot to put him away. We know Yanez has the wherewithal to be aggressive late in the fight, but I don’t see it making that far.
Even though I believe Yanez is poised to cruise to a victory here, I don’t necessarily recommend playing Yanez around the -400 range. Rather, I will be looking at the -3.5 point spread offered at various sportsbooks to cut the price in half. Yanez’s precision, volume, and power will overwhelm the older Garbrandt. Whether it’s an early KO, an accumulation of damage that leads to a TKO or a dominant decision, we are covered with a spread of -3.5 on the Yanez side. I am willing to lay the juice in this spot to fade the diminished Garbrandt.
John's Pick: Adrian Yanez -3.5 spread -225 (DraftKings)
