UFC 329 is upon us, and the main attraction is a fight for the ages: Conor McGregor and Max Holloway will face each other at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, at 6:00 PM PDT. The event serves as a much-anticipated rematch 13 years in the making. With such high stakes, Kalshi traders have been actively trying to predict the outcome of the fight. The “Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway” market offers not only a taste of the classic “wisdom of the crowd”, but also a glimpse into sports narratives and the extreme difficulty of coming back after years of semi-retirement, even for superstars like Conor McGregor.
The Long-awaited Rematch Odds
Conor McGregor’s long-awaited return to the Octagon has arrived, and on July 11 he will once again face Max Holloway in a five-round main event. However, prediction market traders are treating the legendary fighter's comeback as something far less certain than a cinematic triumph.
The market, which has already driven more than $21 million in total trading volume, currently places former featherweight and lightweight champion Max Holloway as the clear favorite to win the rematch. Conversely, McGregor is being treated as a total underdog while his Yes shares experience a sustained dip.
This market is not just reflecting random expectations from fans and retail traders. These are predictions based on recent data from the contenders.
McGregor: Once a Champion, Now the Underdog
For a fighter who once dictated the entire mixed martial arts landscape, the Kalshi board exposes a cold, data-driven skepticism regarding Conor McGregor’s return to active competition.
Traders backing Holloway’s Yes contracts are looking past McGregor's star power and focusing strictly on cage time. When the opening bell rings on Saturday as the centerpiece of UFC International Fight Week 2026, it will mark McGregor's first professional fight in exactly five years.
The 37-year-old Irishman has not competed under the bright lights since suffering a devastating broken leg against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021. Historically, five-year athletic layoffs following major bone injuries do not yield high win probabilities in professional cage fighting.
Holloway, by contrast, is entering the matchup in peak operational form. While the fight marks his official career debut in the 170-pound welterweight division, the 34-year-old Hawaiian has remained highly active. Traders perceive a massive advantage, betting that his active rhythm will easily overwhelm McGregor’s ring rust over a five-round duration.
The Welterweight Factor
The move up to welterweight introduces a massive variable for both men. McGregor has fought at 170 pounds before, but his record at the weight class sits at a modest 2-1, dating back to his legendary split series with Nate Diaz and a swift knockout of Donald Cerrone in 2020.
Interestingly, Holloway seemed to have committed permanently to the lightweight division following his last 145-pound title bout in October 2024. A venture into the welterweight division would probably have never crossed his mind if not for this upcoming rematch against McGregor.
In recent years, Holloway's performance at lightweight has been largely successful. Although his most recent bout in March resulted in a disappointing decision loss to Charles Oliveira, he has previously secured major victories against Dustin Poirier and the reigning UFC 155-pound champion, Justin Gaethje.
Furthermore, the "McGregor Underdog" thesis is anchored on the belief that his signature explosive power will not possess the same one-shot termination capability against a larger opponent like Holloway at 170 pounds. If McGregor fails to secure an early knockout within the first seven minutes, his contract value is expected to experience a violent decay on the live tracker.
