Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio Odds
| Kopylov Odds | -175 |
| Tulio Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115/-115) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The prelim bout between Roman Kopylov and Marco Tulio looks to be one of the more competitive fights on the card. Both middleweights have show flashes of talent during their respective UFC careers, but are coming into the bout with a loss, with Kopylov having dropped two straight. Tulio has looked great against lesser competition, but failed his first test against a higher-level middleweight. Ccan he learn from that experience coming into UFC 328?
Here's my Kopylov vs. Tulio pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Kopylov | Tulio | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:01 | 8:28 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/4/1992 | 6/13/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.59 | 6.69 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.18 | 2.58 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.14 | 1.42 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 26% |
| TD Def | 88% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.3 |
The UFC has seemed strangely interested in pushing Marco Tulio, at least since his second appearance on the Contender Series which came in 2024. I'm not entirely sure why, as by my estimation, he wasn't one of the top prospects on that season, nor was he especially young — he turned 30 three days after that fight.
In his defense, he returned to the Contender Series, after winning his initial appearance, against Yousri Belagroui no less, so the talent is there. On his second trip, he got one of the softer matchups of the season, then debuted in the UFC against Ihor Potieria and Tresean Gore, who have a combined 5-10 UFC record.
Initially more of a grappler, Tulio learned from the experience of winning but not scoring a contract on the Contender Series. He picked up three straight KOs from his second DWCS appearance through his first two UFC fights. I don't consider him an especially technical striker, but he has good size/length for the division, as well as fast hands and plus power.
Perhaps the most impressive part of those performances was his defense. Tulio outstruck his first two UFC opponents 156-23 in those fights. However, the few shots that did land (especially from Gore) seemed to wobble Tulio. Tulio throws all of his strikes at 100% power, which both taxes his cardio and leaves openings for better strikers to counter.
His defense is also based heavily on managing the range so he can land on his opponents without them firing back. His reach is listed as just 74", but he fights longer, landing jabs from just outside of his opponent's reach, even those listed with slightly longer range.
That plan didn't work nearly as well against Christian Leroy-Duncan, a stance-switching fighter with a 79" reach. Tulio notably returned to his grappling roots in that fight, going two-for-five on takedown attempts in the roughly eight-minute fight. One of the successful takedowns was on a missed spinning kick from CLD, and he wasn't able to do much (just two strikes landed) with his top time on the ground.
On the feet, while Tulio landed slightly more shots, the better strikes all came from CLD. Tulio looked uncomfortable with the forward pressure of CLD, and eventually ate a spinning back fist followed by a straight right hand that put him out.
It will be interesting to see if Kopylov follows a similar game plan. A talented technical striker who also has a solid grappling base, Kopylov is 6-3 over his last nine. The losses came to top middleweights Paulo Costa, Gregory Rodrigues, and Anthony Hernandez. Hernandez was able to wear him down with his grappling, as he so often does, while the other two are massive, powerful middleweights (at the time, Costa has since gone up to light heavyweight).
What concerns me on the Kopylov side is the lack of output in both of his two recent losses. Both Costa and Rodrigues attempted more than 50 additional strikes than Kopylov, who seemed concerned about the power and/or takedowns coming back at him. Tulio provides both of those threats as well, which could paralyze Kopylov into inactivity. Kopylov has never been knocked out, and has excellent 88% takedown defense. Both of those data points correlate to a relative lack of output from the Russian, though.
On the positive side, those traits could serve him well against Tulio, who likely slows throughout the fight is he takes his typical approach of throwing everything full power.
Kopylov vs. Tulio Pick, Prediction
While both fighters in this matchup are fairly well-rounded, I do view this as a fairly binary fight. Not in the "striker vs. grappler" sense, but in terms of when their wins are likely to come.
Tulio's power and aggression could serve him well early, giving him a chance to be the first man to knock out the now 35-year-old Kopylov. The more patient Kopylov should be able to take over down the stretch should he make it there.
Therefore, my favorite way to bet this fight is Kopylov live, especially if we get a better price following Round 1. Even if the opening frame is competitive, and the price remains the same, or drops slightly, I'm still fine with betting Kopylov after the biggest threat has subsided.
Prefight, I'm taking a slight sprinkle on Tulio in Round 1 via BetRivers. That line is +430, but in my eyes should be considerably closer to his moneyline price.
Billy's Picks: Tulio in Round 1 +430 (BetRivers) | Kopylov Live
