Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Serbia (Saturday, August 1)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Odds

Check out the Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling prediction for UFC Serbia on Saturday, August 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The injury that forced Khalili Rountree out of last weekend's main event set off a domino effect, shuffling a pair of planned light heavyweight matchups. The final result of that shuffling was Navajo Stirling taking a somewhat short-notice booking against former champion Jan Blachowicz in the UFC Serbia co-main event.

It's an excellent opportunity for Stirling to pick up a third win in 2026, as he comes in off a pair of second-round finishes in March and June of this year. For Blachowicz, it's a chance to snap a four-fight winless streak that includes two draws and a split decision loss, with the only definitive loss in that span coming to UFC champion — and Stirling training partner — Carlos Ulberg.

Tale of the Tape

Since his 2024 appearance on the Contender Series, Najavo Stirling has shown one of the best abilities a fighter can have: availability. This will be his seventh promotional appearance (including that DWCS bout) in just under two years, propelling the undefeated 27-year-old to #10 in the UFC's official rankings.

Training out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, Stirling is yet another kickboxer-turned MMA fighter from the famed camp. Like Israel Adesanya and Carlos Ulberg before him, he's a fast, rangy striker who makes good use of excellent striking fundamentals. Stirling has a solid jab, feints often, and is a committed leg kicker, all of which help him maintain distance and stay safe defensively.

That shows up in his elite striking numbers, where he defends 58% of his opponents' strike attempts and has a +3.62 significant strike differential. Very few fighters in the UFC land more than double the volume of strikes they absorb, and when we filter out ground strikes, that gap is even wider.

The drawback to his approach, though, is that it's not the most exciting. I described him as a patient fighter who builds throughout the fight in my preview of his Contender Series appearance linked above. As recently as last month, I described him as "risk-averse" while betting on his significant strikes over rather than him to finish Ion Cutelaba. He went over — and picked up the finish — his second consecutive stoppage after starting his UFC career with three straight decision victories. A finish over a former champion like Blachowicz would go a long way towards shedding his reputation as a boring (or more generously, cautious) fighter — but that's never been an easy task.

Blachowicz hasn't suffered a knockout loss since prior to his 2020 title run, despite facing some of the most dangerous strikers in the sport. He's gone to decisions with Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg in his last three fights, both strikers with excellent finishing rates. He also won a decision against Israel Adesanya back in 2021, making Stirling the third City Kickboxing fighter he'll have faced.

Blachowicz used his grappling against both Adesanya and Pereira, picking up three takedowns in each of those matchups. However, Adesanya was coming up from middleweight in a double-champ bid, and Pereira was (and is) relatively raw as a grappler. Blachowicz was unable to take Ulberg down in their more recent fight, and didn't attempt any takedowns against Bogdan Guskov last December.

That's concerning, because the 43 year old has slowed down considerably since his prime, and he was never the fastest or most explosive fighter. In the full-sized UFC road cage, he'll have a hard time keeping Stirling in front of him, especially since Stirling is the rare fighter to enjoy a height and reach edge over Blachowicz.

Plus, on top of the well-publicized neck and shoulder injuries that cancelled a pair of planned fights with fellow UFC Serbia fighter Aleksandar Rakic, Blachowicz tore his meniscus earlier this year, forcing him out of a planned fight in May. It's hard to say exactly when the injury and surgery took place, but at most it was five or so months ago — a quick turnaround for a 43-year-old professional athlete.

The combination of injuries and age makes it easy to see why Blachowicz is such a heavy underdog here. He has some theoretical grappling upside and perhaps a puncher's chance, but the "legendary Polish power" has always been a bit overblown, with just four knockout victories among 12 UFC wins (not counting a leg injury to Rakic that went down as a TKO) and none since 2020.

Blachowicz vs. Stirling Pick, Prediction

Stirling has defied expectations by picking up finishes in each of his last two wins, turning his volume punching style into attritional finishes and flashing some surprisingly powerful ground-and-pound along the way. Despite that, the market is still favoring this one to go to a decision at -170.

Given the drastically different trend lines Blachowicz and Stirling are on, I believe this is a perfect opportunity for Stirling to pick up a statement finish over a notoriously durable fighter. A knockout is obviously the most likely finish, but the +260 or so odds are close enough to his +225 finish prop at Hard Rock Bet and BetRivers that I'll forgo the extra juice in order to be covered in case of a club and sub.

If you wanted to juice things up a bit, a DraftKings SGP with Stirling by KO and the fight to go over 4.5 minutes is +450, and would be a fun way to take a big swing if you're so inclined.

Billy's Pick:  Stirling Inside the Distance +225 (BetRivers) 

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