Saturday UFC 255 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jordan Wright vs. Joaquin Buckley: Plenty Of Betting Value On Underdog (Saturday, Nov. 21)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jordan Wright.
- Joaquin Buckley faces off with Jordan Wright on the UFC 255 undercard that has explosive potential.
- Buckley is looking to capitalize on his all-time great knockout win earlier this year. However, is he being overvalued?
- Reed Wallach previews the matchup and details how he plans to bet this bout below.
Buckley vs. Wright Odds
Joaquin Buckley enters UFC 255 with plenty of buzz from around the Mixed Martial Arts world for his highlight reel kick last month. His spinning kick off one foot that knocked Impa Kasanganay out cold was one of the most impressive finishes in the promotion’s history and oddsmakers have jumped on the hype, placing him as a hefty favorite in his third fight against undefeated Jordan Wright.
Both men are seeking to jump into the middleweight rankings with a win on Saturday’s undercard. I’ll break down where I see some potential betting value in this matchup below.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||11-3||11-0 (1 NC)|
|Avg. Fight Time||8:48||1:06|
|Weight (pounds)||185 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/27/94||10/07/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.92||7.79|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||6.09||7.79|
|Take Down Avg||0.85||0.00|
You can’t take too much from Wright’s statistics. He finished his first opponent in the UFC, Ike Villanueva, in 91 seconds, so his stats are noticeably inflated. I will give some more color to that quick debut below, but it was very impressive for a first go in the octagon.
Buckley stands 5-foot-10 with a chiseled frame, but will look diminutive against the 6-foot-2 Wright. However, Wright will only have a one inch advantage in the reach department.
Buckley has made it clear in his opening two fights that he likes to stand and let his hands go, a bit recklessly to be fair. He has landed 3.92 significant strikes per minute, but has also absorbed 6.09, according to data from UFC Stats.
Wright vs. Buckley Betting Pick
This is a great sell high spot on Buckley, who was priced +350 and +210 in his first two matches in the promotion, quickly becoming a trendy chalk pick.
While everyone will point to Buckley’s highlight reel finish, Wright scored his first win in his debut at light heavyweight against the veteran Villanueva in a vicious matter. Wright cut up Villanueva so bad in the opening round that the doctor called the fight less than two minutes into the action.
ON THE MONEY 💸
Wright's knees opens a cut on Villanueva that call the fight.
📺 Action continues on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/9Jjnh47NY4
— UFC (@ufc) August 22, 2020
Wright is 11-0 and possesses the size advantage, as stated above. While he began his UFC career at light heavyweight, he is a natural middleweight so I don’t foresee any weight cutting issues.
While the hype is around Buckley, let’s go back to his prior two fights in the octagon. He was a late fill in against Kevin Holland, and a substantial +350 underdog. Buckley was outmatched by the ranked Holland and got knocked out in the third round.
His follow up performance against Kasanganay was competitive up until Buckley turned the lights out on his opponent. Buckley was higher than a 2-1 dog in that fight as well, so I see this number incredibly inflated based on that one kick.
This is a play on the price. The number of -280 at PointsBet has drifted way too far for Buckley against an undefeated fighter. “The Beverly Hills Ninja” is a finishing savant, with all 11 of his wins coming inside of the distance and 10 of them coming in the first round. As we saw above, Wright is hunting early and often for a finish.
If Buckley tries to engage Wright, Wright can turn this into a grappling bout where his size can really take over and put Buckley in some serious trouble.
While Buckley is an imposing figure, I think that Wright can hang and land a knockout blow early and finish the overvalued Buckley.
The Pick: Jordan Wright +215 (play down to +160)